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NCAA Basketball Picks - Profiles

Apr 6

Michigan State vs. North Carolina 9:15pm EST
Selection:  NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 (W)
Profile:  These two teams met back in December, with North Carolina getting a blowout win.  However, this selection doesn’t have too much to do with that game, as Michigan State is a better team now.  This play is more about the flow of the game and certain advantages that North Carolina will have.  Michigan State has used tough defense, transition offense, and their depth to get wins over USC, Kansas, Louisville, and Connecticut.  However, the Tar Heels will be the first team that they have faced in the tournament which has outstanding depth and good transition offense.  North Carolina has also dramatically improved their defense in their wins over Villanova, Oklahoma, Gonzaga, and LSU.  They have actually held their opponents to a lower field goal percentage over their last five games than the Spartans.  Despite their up-tempo style of play, North Carolina’s opponents have only averaged three more points per game over the last five games.  That statistic will be a tremendous factor in this game.  Michigan State’s offense has been somewhat lethargic at times in the tournament, and I expect them to struggle against North Carolina’s improved defense.  In addition, the Tar Heels up-tempo style of offense will get the Spartans out of rhythm, as I expect North Carolina to control the tempo of the game.  Essentially, Michigan State will be playing just to hold on the entire game.  The Tar Heels have also been able to light up the scoreboard while having some average shooting percentages.  They could have won their last few games by a bigger margin if they were more motivated.  I expect the Tar Heels to come out strong like in their last two games because of their coaching and determination.  Finally, North Carolina did show that they were the better team than Michigan State back in December.  In almost 80% of college basketball games, the team that wins the game also covers the spread.  North Carolina will win this game, and I expect them to control it throughout the 2nd half.  Look for the Tar Heels to win the national title game by margin.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Apr 4

Michigan State vs. Connecticut 6:07pm EST
Selection:  CONNECTICUT -4 (L)
Profile:  I love to bet against teams coming off of big wins that the media has extensively covered.  Michigan State had a huge upset win last Sunday against Louisville, but I had doubts about the Cardinals all season.  They finally ran up against a quality opponent which was able to exploit their weaknesses.  However, Michigan State has really struggled to score at times, and this weakness will be their downfall in this game.  In addition, the Spartans have enjoyed a strong rebounding advantage over their opponents this season.  However, the Huskies are a bigger team at every position and will have the rebounding edge in this game.  Essentially, Michigan State is going to have a much tougher time scoring and will be out-rebounded.  Much news has been made about this game being played at Ford Field, just a short drive from Michigan State’s campus.  However, I feel that factor will add fuel to Connecticut’s fire.  Several of their starters have already said that they like the fact that the crowd will be against them.  I feel that the media harassing them about playing so close to Michigan State’s campus will motivate Connecticut even more.  I look for the Huskies to come out very focused and fired up.  Another factor to look at is Connecticut’s performance against Purdue in the Sweet 16.  The Boilermakers are almost identical talent wise to Michigan State.  The Spartans might be slightly better, but the difference is not significant.  Connecticut controlled that game throughout and outscored Purdue in both the 1st and 2nd half.  Purdue did make rallies, but the difference was obvious.  Look for Connecticut to win this game by around 6-10 points.  They won’t cover the spread by much, but they will control the game throughout.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Villanova vs. North Carolina 8:47pm EST
Selection:  VILLANOVA +7 AND OVER 159 POINTS (L) (L)
Profile:  First and foremost, this total is not going to be high enough.  I feel that the total should be around 165 points or more.  Oddsmakers mainly used each team’s statistics from previous games to make this line.  However, they did not account for the increased tempo and scoring of each team in this game.  Both teams like to run up and down the court, especially North Carolina.  The Tar Heels absolutely love to push the ball right away after an opponent scores.  Meanwhile, Villanova’s offense has been excellent in the NCAA tournament.  They have averaged over 80 points per game, including an 89 point game against UCLA and a 78 point game against Pittsburgh.  Before their game against Oklahoma, North Carolina averaged 94 points per game in the tournament.  In fact, the biggest indicator to this game was the Gonzaga/North Carolina Sweet 16 match-up.  Gonzaga isn’t as talented as Villanova, but they play a similar style of basketball.  Each team combined for 175 points in that contest, well over the total of 163 points.  Overall, the three biggest factors that will send this game over the total are the fast tempo, fouls late in the game, and the excellent shooting of each team.  Some experts think that each team will struggle shooting in this game, but I disagree.  North Carolina scored 98 points against Michigan State at Ford Field earlier this year.  In addition, each team will have extensive practice time on the court in order to adjust to the different surroundings.  Also, North Carolina was able to get only a 12 point win over Oklahoma in the Elite 8, despite the Sooners horrible performance from the three point and foul line.  If the Sooners had made just two more three pointers, then they would have covered the spread.  It is not likely that the Wildcats will shoot 10% from the three point line and 60% from the free throw line.  Villanova has excellent athletes all over the court that can play North Carolina very tough.  In addition, I expect the Tar Heels to get into a scoring battle with the Wildcats.  Look for each team to match one another basket for basket in a high scoring contest that will come down to the wire.
5 UNIT SELECTION ON OVER 159 POINTS
3 UNIT SELECTION ON VILLANOVA

Apr 3

Oregon State at UTEP 10:00pm EST
Selection:  OVER 134 POINTS (W)
Profile:  These two teams have met twice already with the first game flying over the total and the second game was just one point under a raised total.  However, the last game saw UTEP not only struggle from the field but also from the foul line.  I don’t expect a repeat performance tonight, with the Miners playing another home contest in the CBI.  I expect UTEP to also control the tempo, meaning that this game will be played at a much faster pace.  Oregon State will be able to score in the 60’s, while UTEP will score in the mid 70’s.  Look for this game to be over the total by at least 6 points because of the Miners making this a higher tempo game.  In addition, Oregon State will be fouling with a greater frequency because of the postseason nature of the contest.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Apr 2

Baylor vs. Penn State 7:00pm EST
Selection:  BAYLOR -3.5 (L)
Profile:  Baylor is the better team in this match-up, no doubt.  They have defeated four very quality opponents during the NIT.  Their road wins at Auburn and at Virginia Tech are very impressive, as well as their wins against Georgetown and San Diego State.  All of those teams were motivated, yet the Bears were able to take care of all of them with relative ease.  However, Penn State’s run hasn’t been as strong.  They should have lost at home to George Mason in the 1st round.  In addition, Notre Dame had an absolutely horrendous shooting night, but the Nittany Lions still let that game go down to the wire.  Penn State hasn’t faced a team in the NIT with as talented of guards as Baylor.  The Bears guards are significantly better than the Nittany Lion guards.  In addition, Baylor has good size down low, which will be another problem for Penn State.  I look for Baylor’s scoring and better overall team play to be the difference in this game.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 31

Baylor vs. San Diego State 7:00pm EST
Selection:  BAYLOR -1 (W)
Profile:  The Mountain West Conference is a significant step below the Big 12 Conference.  Utah and BYU were quickly bounced from the NCAA tournament, and the Big 12’s talent advantage was obvious in Texas A&M’s win over BYU.  That game was not close from start to finish, as the Aggies led throughout.  San Diego State did beat Kansas State, a Big 12 team, two rounds ago in the NIT.  However, the Wildcats are a very young team, and they were nowhere near the intensity level of the Aztecs.  They weren’t focused in that game and it showed.  The biggest key to this game is the Baylor guard play.  They have three outstanding guards in Tweety Carter, LaceDarius Dunn, and Curtis Jerrells.  This trio of guards carried them through the Big 12 tournament and the NIT.  In addition, they have good size on the inside in Josh Lomers and Kevin Rogers.  Baylor is a much better team than where they finished the season.  The Bears failed to live up to expectations this season, as they tried to ride their success of last year.  However, they were able to almost pull out an NCAA tournament bid before falling to Missouri in the Big 12 championship.  The Bears are very focused in the NIT though.  They have impressive road wins at Auburn, at Virginia Tech, and at home to Georgetown.  San Diego State almost allowed St. Mary’s to beat them at home, despite an enormous home court advantage in that game.  Look for Baylor’s better overall guard play and size on the inside to be the difference in this game.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Old Dominion at Bradley 8:05pm EST
Selection:  OLD DOMINION +1.5 (W)
Profile:  Bradley has a substantial edge in home court advantage, as they have drawn over 10,000 fans in these post season games.  In addition, they have played all of their CIT games at home, so the Braves are well rested.  However, I feel that these two factors are giving us excellent point spread value, and the oddsmakers are telling us something about these two teams.  Bradley is just a small favorite, despite playing with a fairly strong home court advantage.  The Colonial Athletic Association is a step above the Missouri Valley Conference this season.  This year has been one of the weaker years for the MVC, evident by only one team making it into the NCAA tournament.  In addition, Northern Iowa was bounced in the 1st round, while Creighton was defeated at home by a relatively weak Kentucky team in the NIT.  In addition, Old Dominion underperformed for most of this season before turning things on in February.  The Monarchs are a very athletic and well coached team.  In addition, their three wins in the CIT have come against much better teams than Bradley.  The Citadel, Belmont, and James Madison are overall tougher opponents than Pacific, Oakland, and Austin Peay.  In addition, Old Dominion played very well on the road this season, going 7-6 straight up away from home.  They are an experienced team as well, so they won’t get rattled in the hostile environment.  Look for Old Dominion to get the outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Penn State vs. Notre Dame 9:20pm EST
Selection:  OVER 137.5 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Routinely during the post season Big 10 teams play a more up-tempo pace once they get outside of conference play.  These teams have a tendency to get bogged down against the slower paced teams, such as Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin.  However, teams like Penn State, Purdue, and Michigan State are able to play more up-tempo games because of their guard play.  The Nittany Lions have excellent guards in Stanley Pringle and Taylor Battle, who are able to play a faster paced game.  This point is evident by the 154 combined points that Penn State has scored in their last two games, against Rhode Island and Florida.  In addition, they tend to match the style of their opponent, so I expect them to want to run with Notre Dame.  Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish are a higher scoring team.  They have scored 70 points or more in all three NIT games as well.  The key to Notre Dame scoring is the success of their three point shooting.  Penn State has allowed opponents to shoot 37% from beyond the arc over their last five games, and I expect Notre Dame to shoot approximately 40% with their three pointers in this game.  In addition, the team which is trailing at the end of the game will foul more than usual because of this game being the NIT semi-finals.  
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 29

Oklahoma vs. North Carolina 5:05pm EST
Selection:  OKLAHOMA +7 (L)
Profile:  First and foremost, North Carolina is a very public team and oddsmakers always favor them by more points than they are really worth.  That is just a fact, and they have done the same in this game.  No doubt, North Carolina is a good team, but they aren’t as strong as people think, despite their blowout win over Gonzaga.  The Zags were also over-rated this entire season and struggled against teams outside of the West Coast Conference.  Most people forget that North Carolina actually trailed LSU in the 2nd half of their Round of 32 game.  In addition, it is absolutely critical to look at the conference match-up in these tournament games.  I feel that the ACC is either the 3rd or 4th best conference this season, with the Big 12 Conference being the 2nd best.  Missouri, one of the better teams in the Big 12 this season, took Connecticut down to the wire yesterday.  In addition, Texas, a far less superior team than Oklahoma, took Duke down to the final shot in this tournament.  Oklahoma matches up very well against North Carolina, as Tyler Hansbrough simply is no match for Blake Griffin.  Griffin is the best player in the country, hands down.  He will be the #1 pick in the NBA draft, and Hansbrough simply will get dominated by him.  In addition, Oklahoma’s guards are very good as well, evident by their excellent performances in the NCAA tournament.  Ty Lawson is healthy and the best guard on the court, but the Sooners guards will keep this game close.  Look for Griffin to have a huge game, as well as the Oklahoma guards.  This game will go down to the final seconds.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 28

Missouri vs. Connecticut 4:40pm EST
Selection:  OVER 150 POINTS (W)
Profile:  This game is going to be the most entertaining game so far in the NCAA tournament.  Both teams like to push the tempo, and Missouri will make sure this game is played at as fast of a tempo as possible.  Connecticut, despite being slowed down by Purdue, still put up 72 points in a sluggish game.  UConn has a dominant advantage on the inside with their size and low post presence.  Missouri’s weakness against Memphis was low post play, as Memphis was able to get almost anything their wanted down low.  I expect the Huskies to drive to the basket throughout, getting several easy baskets.  Meanwhile, Missouri’s tempo lends itself to a high scoring game, much higher scoring than the oddsmakers think.  They have failed to adjust properly to the Tigers pace.  If these two teams would have played a few weeks ago, then the total would have been in the mid 140’s.  However, this total is off by at least 5 points.  Purdue shot just 36% from the field against them, yet still scored 60 points.  Missouri is going to shoot better than 40% in this game, and they will have several more possessions.  I look for the Tigers to score in the mid to high 70’s, while Connecticut will go over 80 points in this game.  Take the OVER.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Villanova vs. Pittsburgh 7:05pm EST
Selection:  VILLANOVA +2 (W)
Profile:  Pittsburgh has arguably had one of the easiest paths to the Elite Eight, facing East Tennessee State, Oklahoma State, and Xavier.  They struggled in all of those games and trailed by margin against Oklahoma State and Xavier before pulling out wins late in the 2nd half.  I believe that teams change, good or bad, as the season progresses.  Pittsburgh has regressed in the last month of the season in my opinion.  They are just 3-6 against the spread in the last month, and they have struggled to play well away from home throughout the season.  This selection doesn’t have much to do with Villanova’s win over Pittsburgh earlier in the season, as I believe each team had a fairly strong home/road dichotomy throughout the year.  The main reason the Wildcats won that game was because of their home court advantage.  However, Villanova is playing much better overall basketball now, and they have better guards.  Guards are absolutely critical in games like these, which will come down to the wire.  Pittsburgh’s offense really struggled against Xavier, and I expect them to have similar problems against Villanova’s defense.  The Wildcats defense shut down Duke and UCLA, while using just average shooting nights to put up 77 and 89 points.  Villanova is the much hotter team right now, and they have strong defense and excellent guard play.  Look for the Wildcats to move on to the Final Four.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 27

Arizona vs. Louisville 7:07pm EST
Selection:  ARIZONA +9 (L)
Profile:  Louisville has been one of the most inconsistent upper echelon team all season, including in the NCAA tournament.  They struggled to pull away from Morehead State and Siena in the tournament, and they even trailed the Saints late in the 2nd half before making a rally.  The Cardinals simply aren’t able to put together a consistent effort for an entire game, and now they are finally facing a team that can make them pay.  Arizona has NBA caliber talent and excellent athletes which can keep this game close throughout.  Chase Budinger, Jordan Hill, and Nic Wise are the main weapons in a very talented starting line-up.  They dominated Utah and Cleveland State from start to finish in both games and will have another good game here.  Louisville simply doesn’t have the firepower or consistent focus capable of blowing out a quality team like Arizona.  I look for the Wildcats to be the much hungrier team in this game, while Louisville will be in a fight throughout.  Arizona’s balanced scoring and NBA quality talent will be enough to keep them in this game until the final buzzer.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Syracuse vs. Oklahoma 7:27pm EST
Selection:  SYRACUSE +1.5 (L)
Profile:  In order to justify one of my biggest plays of the entire year in any sport, I am going to analyze several different aspects to this game.  First, let’s look at the coaching match-up of Jim Boeheim vs. Jeff Capel.  Boeheim has much more experience than Capel and is an excellent big game coach.  Capel is a very good coach as well though.  Overall, I give a slight edge to Syracuse in regards to the head coach.  Next, let’s compare overall guard play on both teams.  The Orange have a huge edge here, as Johnny Flynn and Eric Devendorf are very under-rated guards.  They are significantly better than Oklahoma’s guards.  Oklahoma’s guards are turnover prone, as well.  The Sooners had 19 turnovers against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game, 21 turnovers against Missouri in the regular season, and 15 turnovers against Morgan State in the 1st round.  However, I feel that the biggest advantage in this game is the size and depth of Syracuse’s big men.  They will be able to continually challenge Blake Griffin on the inside while not having to worry about foul trouble.  Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson are big bodies and excellent forwards who will be able to at least slow down Griffin without worrying about foul trouble.  One last important key to look at is the two games involving Big East teams against Big 12 teams in the NCAA tournament 2nd round.  Marquette was either the worst or second worst team from the Big East to make it into the tournament.  Meanwhile, Missouri was arguably the best or tied for the best team in the Big 12 this season.  However, the Tigers let the Golden Eagles back into the game after leading by double digits at halftime.  In fact, Missouri’s high tempo style of play didn’t affect Marquette in the second half, as they made a furious rally and take the lead.  In addition, Pittsburgh, once playing with motivation, was able to pull away from Oklahoma State with relative easy late in the 1st half and in the 2nd half.  The Panthers don’t typically blow teams out anyway, but the talent gap was obvious once they focused.  These games show me that there is a talent gap between the Big 12 and Big East teams.  Both Syracuse and Oklahoma are being priced at their level of play from the regular season.  However, Syracuse has vastly improved, while Oklahoma has shown some weaknesses.  The Orange have much better overall team play with an excellent inside/outside combination.  They also have better three point shooters and guards who can make tough shots at the end of the game.  Having guards who can make shots during critical moments is one of the most important factors when handicapping these tough tournament games.  Syracuse also has better three point shooters.  The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season at just the right time, while the Sooners are over-rated, especially against the best teams in the country.  Look for Syracuse to win this game outright.
5 UNIT SELECTION

Kansas vs. Michigan State 9:37pm EST
Selection:  MICHIGAN STATE -1.5 (W)
Profile:  These two teams met already this season, with Michigan State getting an easy home win.  However, Kansas is a young team this season, and they were very inexperienced going into that road game.  The Jayhawks are a much better overall team now than they were in that game.  The difference in this game is the match-up advantages that Michigan State has over Kansas.  The Jayhawks rely almost exclusively on guard Sherron Collins and big man Cole Aldrich.  Michigan State has several talented players, and their big men will have a big advantage over Kansas.  The Spartans have excellent length with their forwards, Delvon Roe and Raymar Morgan, as well as center Goran Suton.  They also have great ball handlers in Travis Walton, Kalin Lucas, and Durrell Summers.  Overall, the Spartans have a huge advantage in their depth and overall talent, while the Jayhawks rely too much on Collins and Aldrich.  Michigan State is a much better overall team, and they have the added confidence of blowing out Kansas at home and beating another Big 12 opponent, Texas, on the road.  The Spartans are a tremendously tough team, evident by their wire to wire grinding win over USC in the 2nd round.  Look for Michigan State to move on to the Elite 8.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 26

Xavier vs. Pittsburgh 7:27pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 139 POINTS (W)
Profile:  One of Xavier’s most notable trends this season is their offensive struggles against the better teams on their schedule.  They have seen a significant drop off in offense against teams like Wisconsin, Temple, Butler, Duke, Rhode Island, Dayton, Virginia Tech, and Memphis.  They scored in the 60’s or less against everyone one of those teams.  Now they have to face one of the best defensive teams that they have played all season in Pittsburgh.  The Panthers have participated in several high scoring games recently against teams that like to play an up-tempo style of offense, which is why I feel that this total is slightly inflated.  Pittsburgh really shut down East Tennessee State in the 1st round, giving up only 30% from the field and 18% from the three point line.  Meanwhile, Xavier plays a slightly slower style of tempo and has strong team defense as well.  The Musketeers really frustrated Wisconsin in their last game, giving up only 49 points and 28.6% shooting.  In addition, Xavier has limited several teams on their schedule to under 60 points.  Pittsburgh’s offense has a tendency to get bogged down, and I expect Xavier to slow down the Panthers scoring enough to get this game under the total.  I like Pittsburgh from a side perspective here, but they haven’t been able to beat teams by deficit at the end of the season.  Therefore, I feel that the under is a much better selection.  Look for each team to focus on strong defense, as this game will be an excellent defensive battle.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Missouri vs. Memphis 9:37pm EST
Selection:  OVER 141 POINTS (W)
Profile:  The first thing that I noticed in this match-up is the increased scoring by Memphis’ opponents over the last two games.  The Tigers had one of the best field goal defensive percentages in college basketball this season, but they have given up 70 points in their last 2 games.  Memphis allowed CS Northridge to shoot 44.5% from the field and Maryland to shoot 43.5% from the field in their last two games.  These percentages are about 9% higher than their average during the regular season.  Missouri will be one of the best teams that Memphis has seen all season as well.  The Tigers up-tempo style of play will allow for a great deal of possessions by each team, therefore creating more scoring opportunities.  Each team has also scored 78 points or more in their NCAA tournament games as well.  Another fact worth noting is that Memphis has averaged 13 turnovers per game in their two tournament games, so Missouri’s high pressure defense will create several turnovers causing the tempo to increase.  Look for this game to be played a frenetic pace, as both teams will reach 75 points or more.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Villanova vs. Duke 10:07pm EST
Selection:  VILLANOVA +2.5 (W)
Profile:  Duke overcame being out-shot and out-rebounded by Texas to get a 2nd round win.  However, they won’t be as lucky in this game, as Villanova has much better all around play, especially from their guards.  Guards are absolutely critical in postseason play, but the difference in this game will be the Wildcats forwards.  Dwayne Anderson and Dante Cunningham are a match-up problem from the Blue Devils, as Duke doesn’t have anyone who can match-up well against them.  In addition, there is a significant talent difference between the ACC and Big East.  The ACC had Maryland, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Boston College all lose in their first two rounds, while the Big East has only had Marquette and West Virginia exit the tournament.  In addition, another area of concern for Duke is the way that a mediocre Texas team outplayed them statistically.  One interesting piece of information though is that Texas actually beat Villanova at the start of the season.  I don’t think that the Wildcats were focused in that game, and they had a horrible shooting night.  Another game to look at though is the Georgetown/Duke game earlier this year.  The Hoyas were a below average team this year in the Big East, yet they still able to play the Blue Devils very tough in the 2nd half of that game.  Duke really struggled with the athleticism of Georgetown as well.  In addition, with the points, Villanova just has to take the game down to the last shot to cover.  However, they will win outright.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 25

Stanford at Oregon State 10:00pm EST
Selection:  STANFORD -3 (L)
Profile:  This game will be the fourth match-up between these two teams this season.  Stanford was able to get the win against Oregon State in the Pac-10 Tournament to avenge their two losses to the Beavers earlier in the season.  In that game, the Cardinal was able to hold the Beavers to 39% shooting overall and only 26 points in the 2nd half.  Stanford has shown up to play in the CBI, evident by their two dominant blowout wins against Boise State and Wichita State.  I look for them to play with great intensity in this game, as they do not want to fall for a 3rd time against lowly Oregon State.  Look for Stanford to get the road win and cover.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 24

Baylor at Auburn 7:00pm EST
Selection:  BAYLOR +3.5 (W)
Profile:  It has been evident in college basketball post season play that the SEC is a step below the other major conferences this season.  They had no team advance to the Sweet 16, and LSU was the only team to advance past the first round in the tournament.  Baylor is a motivated and experienced team which doesn’t want their season to end.  They had a very impressive blowout road win over Virginia Tech in their last game.  In addition, the Bears had a good win in the 1st round of the NIT over a motivated and talented Georgetown team.  Baylor wants desperately to win the NIT, bottom line.  They have very talented and experienced guards, which is critical to post season success.  Auburn’s guards simply won’t be able to slow down Baylor’s offense.  Look for the Bears to get the outright road win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 23

Kentucky at Creighton 7:00pm EST
Selection:  KENTUCKY +2 (W)
Profile:  Creighton showed just how little they cared about the NIT with their very close home win against Bowling Green in the first round.  The MAC is a very weak conference this season, and Bowling Green was just the 4th or 5th best team in the conference.  However, they were still able to take MVC powerhouse Creighton down to the wire.  The Blue Jays have no one who can match-up with future NBA players Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson.  They are a mismatch nightmare for them.  Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie needs his team to have a good showing in the NIT in order to keep some of his fans support.  He will make sure his team is ready against a team that they can play well against.  Look for Meeks and Patterson to carry the Wildcats to the win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Belmont at Old Dominion 7:00pm EST
Selection:  OLD DOMINION -6 (W)
Profile:  Old Dominion really played well down the stretch, as they hit their stride at the end of the season.  However, they could not get past VCU in the conference tournament semi-finals.  The Monarchs though did take that game down to the wire, which is more than what other teams could against them.  In addition, ODU showed that they care about playing well in these postseason games, as they played well against a red hot Citadel team in their last game.  The CAA is one of the best, if not the best mid-major conference in the country.  Old Dominion has experience and talented athletes as well.  The key to shutting down Belmont is to limit their three point shooting, which Old Dominion is excellent at doing.  They have held opponents to 27% shooting from the three point line in their last five games, and I expect them to shut them down tonight as well.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Northeastern at UTEP 10:00pm EST
Selection:  NORTHEASTERN +7.5 (L)
Profile:  Northeastern showed a great deal of toughness in their road win at Wyoming.  The Cowboys have played well at home all season, including some upset wins as significant underdogs.  However, Northeastern was able to fly across the country and beat Wyoming on the road, despite not being used to playing in the altitude.  They were also without one of their bench players and a starting forward, Manny Adako.  Both players are questionable for this game, but the Huskies are a guard oriented team anyway.  Their possible absences won’t matter too much in this game.  UTEP does not play very good defense, and they don’t have a dominant home court advantage.  In addition, the Miners were able to get a win and cover against CAA opponent James Madison earlier in the season, but that win is slightly skewed.  The Dukes were still an inexperienced team, and the Miners used a tremendous three point shooting night to get a cover.  However, Northeastern is a much better team, and their three point defense is very strong.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 22

Dayton vs. Kansas 2:30pm EST
Selection:  DAYTON +8 (L)
Profile:  Kansas is not at the same level as a season ago, not even close.  That drop off showed in their first game of the tournament.  They were able to hold off North Dakota State, but this game will much more difficult for them.  The Flyers are playing with a chip on their shoulder after dominating West Virginia in the second round.  They have confidence knowing that they played very well against one of the better teams in the Big East.  Their defense was stifling in that game, limiting the Mountaineers to only 36% shooting.  What makes Dayton’s win even better is that they only shot 60% from the free throw line, so their win could have been even bigger.  The Flyers have excellent athletes, capable of keeping this game close.  Kansas’ youth will be a problem here, especially against a scrappy Dayton team.  They only forced 8 turnovers and had an even rebounding performance against North Dakota State.  Dayton is vastly better than the Bison, and I expect a very motivated performance from them in this game.  Look for the outcome to be decided in the final minute with the Flyers having a chance to pull off the outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Cleveland State vs. Arizona 2:40pm EST
Selection:  CLEVELAND STATE +3 (L)
Profile:  Just like predicted, Arizona was able to come out with one strong performance in the tournament, but I expect a letdown in this game.  The Wildcats have been up and down all season, as they really struggle when one of their top three players don’t come out motivated.  Also, they won’t be as motivated to play a mid-major team like Cleveland State.  However, the Vikings are the real deal.  They absolutely dominated Wake Forest the entire game.  Cleveland State has four returning starters from a season ago, as well as excellent athletes and guard play.  They showed their toughness with a win in the Horizon League Championship game, in a road contest at Butler.  In fact, they were trailing at halftime, yet showed a great deal of resiliency in coming back and winning the championship.  I expect their motivation and scrappiness to be too much for Arizona to keep up with.  Look for the Vikings to move on to the Sweet 16 because of their athleticism, experience, and motivation.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Marquette vs. Missouri 4:40pm EST
Selection:  MISSOURI -3.5 (W)
Profile:  Marquette’s lack of depth will finally catch up with them in this game.  Missouri’s high pressure defense and up-tempo style of play will cause them a great deal of problems, as the Tigers are the worst team that the Golden Eagles could have faced.  Dominic James is actually expected to play, but his addition isn’t going to help.  He hasn’t played in about a month, and now he is expected to step in and play at the same level as before.  Look for him to struggle getting adjusted to game speed, especially against such an up-tempo team like Missouri.  Look for the offense to become very sluggish, as James will try to make plays and not play effectively.  It is extremely difficult to miss a month due to injury then step back in against a high pressure defense.  The Golden Eagles offense really struggled against Utah State, shooting only 36% from the field.  However, the Tigers defense is significantly better than the Aggies.  Look for Missouri to dominate this game from start to finish, as they up-tempo style of play will be too much for a short handed Marquette team to handle.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 21

Texas A&M vs. Connecticut 3:25pm EST
Selection:  CONNECTICUT -10 (W)
Profile:  UCONN showed their motivation in a blowout win on Thursday, as their loss in the Big East tournament seems to have lit a fire in the Huskies.  In addition, they will be motivated to play well with their coach back on the sideline.  Texas A&M does not match up well against UCONN.  A great deal of their offense comes from driving to the basket, but they have yet to face a defensive presence like Hasheem Thabeet.  In addition, Texas A&M’s defense has been very porous recently, giving up an average of 47% from the field, as well as 43% from the three point line.  Connecticut’s defense has been rock solid all season, limiting opponents to 37% from the field.  The Huskies are the vastly better defensive team, and they will carry their motivation from the last game into this game.  Look for a blowout win by Connecticut.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan vs. Oklahoma 5:40pm EST
Selection:  MICHIGAN +7 (L)
Profile:  Michigan used a tough defensive performance while playing a slow grinding pace to beat Clemson outright as a 5.5 point underdog.  Oklahoma also uses the same style of play, so Michigan will be able to keep in this game.  Blake Griffin will no doubt get points no matter what, but the Wolverines have better guard play with Manny Harris being the focal point.  In addition, they have an edge in coaching with John Beilein.  He is excellent at getting his team prepared and putting them in a position to win.  In addition, the Sooners aren’t a team that blows their opponents out away from home.  They had several close games this season, as well as going 3-7 against the spread to close the season.  Michigan meanwhile has been steadily improved as the season has gone on.  The Wolverines are youthful, but they used the season to improve their overall team play.  Michigan had a very impressive win over Clemson, in a game that they controlled throughout.  They won’t lay an egg here, as they have an excellent chance to win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Purdue vs. Washington 5:40pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 140 POINTS (L)
Profile:  This game is matching two excellent teams with very similar styles.  Both teams have outstanding forwards with Robbie Hummel for Purdue and Jon Brockman for Washington.  Each team also has quality guard play.  However, both teams play very good defense, and in a game that will come down to the wire, defense will be heavily focused on.  Purdue has held 9 out of their last 10 opponents to under 70 points, with Michigan being the only team to score more than 70 points.  However, Robbie Hummel was severely limited in that game due to an injured back.  The Boilermakers know that they can’t get into an up and down game with the Huskies because that isn’t their style.  They like to play grinding, half court physical basketball with Hummel being the centerpiece.  Washington likes to push the tempo but plays lower scoring games involving better teams.  The Huskies completely shut down Mississippi State in their last game, and I look for another strong defensive performance here.  Every possession will be critical in this very close game.  Each team will focus on defense and possessions will go deep into the shot clock.  Look for this game to fall well under the total.
3 UNIT SELECTION

LSU vs. North Carolina 5:45pm EST
Selection:  LSU +11.5 (L)
Profile:  The biggest news story with this game is the status of Ty Lawson.  He is going to be a game time decision, so it won’t be known until tip off whether he will play or not.  However, even if he does play, then he won’t be at 100%.  In addition, he hasn’t played for awhile, so he is going to be sluggish for at least the 1st half until getting adjusted back to game speed.  Meanwhile, LSU is being severely under-rated here.  The Tigers are being disrespected because of the poor showings from the other SEC teams in the tournament, Tennessee and Mississippi State.  However, LSU is a significant step above those teams, and they got an impressive win over Butler in the 1st round.  The Tigers have an excellent coach in Trent Johnson, who took Stanford on a deep tournament run last year.  He knows how to coach a successful team in the tournament.  LSU has everything that is needed for a deep tournament run.  They have NBA caliber talent at the guard position with Marcus Thornton.  They also have excellent size and good low post play with Tazmin Mitchell and 6’11’ Chris Johnson.  They will be able to play very well against Tyler Hansborough.  North Carolina is a completely different team without a healthy Lawson, so look for the Tigers to take this game down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Western Kentucky vs. Gonzaga 8:00pm EST
Selection:  WESTERN KENTUCKY +11 (W)
Profile:  This game is a match-up of two very hot teams.  However, I feel that Gonzaga is slightly over-rated here.  The Bulldogs weren’t particularly impressive against Akron in the 1st round, which is notable given how weak the MAC is this season.  Meanwhile, Western Kentucky was very impressive against Illinois, controlling the game by double digits for a good portion of the game.  The Hilltoppers have excellent guard play and balanced scoring, which will make defending them a very difficult job for Gonzaga.  In addition, even though that several players left from last year’s tournament team, a bulk of this year’s team got experience playing in the tournament last year.  Therefore, they have the confidence of knowing that they were here last year, so the Hilltoppers know that they have capability to make another deep run.  Gonzaga is being priced like a top five team here, however I feel that they are a step below the best teams in the country.  Particularly in the way they were absolutely blown out by Memphis, as well as allowing UCONN to fly the whole way across the country and still beat them at home.  Look for Western Kentucky to keep this game close throughout.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Texas vs. Duke 8:05pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS +7.5 (W)
Profile:  Texas has three keys in this game which will allow them to take this game down to the wire.  First and foremost is their big man, center Dexter Pittman.  Duke struggles against teams with size, especially with big men like Pittman.  He is young but has developed very well throughout the season.  Duke has no one who can match-up well against him and control the inside.  In addition, Texas has excellent guard play with A.J. Abrams.  He is able to get points whenever the Longhorns need him.  In addition, the ACC has been slightly exposed in the tournament with losses by Florida State, Wake Forest, and Boston College.  Therefore, several of Duke’s close wins this season are somewhat in question here.  In addition, the Blue Devils had several close games against some out of conference teams that weren’t the best in the country.  They struggled much more from a point spread perspective against non-conference teams like Davidson, Georgetown, St. John’s, Michigan, and Rhode Island.  However, the biggest factor may be the Longhorns three point defense.  Duke really struggles when they can’t consistently make three pointers, and Texas defends the three point line very well, allowing opposing teams to shoot only 34%.  In addition, their defensive intensity has ramped up, as they have allowed only 32% from the three point line over their last five games.  Texas’ advantages with Pittman down low and Abrams at the guard position will keep them in this game throughout.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 20

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State 12:25pm EST
Selection:  TENNESSEE -2 (L)
Profile:  Oklahoma State had a nice run to end the season, but they had a crushing loss in the Big 12 tournament against Texas Tech.  Their win streak to close the regular season is a big misleading though, as the majority of their wins came against the weakest teams in conference and/or at home.  In addition, their best player, Byron Eaton, is dealing an injured toe, which will hamper him at least somewhat in this game.  Tennessee meanwhile has been an up and down team all season, as they routinely did not show up for games and had horrible performances.  However, the Volunteers showed what they were capable in their road wins at Florida and South Carolina, as well as their performance in the SEC tournament.  Tennessee has a huge advantage in athleticism and size in this game with Tyler Smith, Wayne Chism, Bobby Maize, and J.P. Prince.  They are all tall and athletic, which is a big problem for Oklahoma State’s offense.  Bruce Pearl’s teams have played very well in the NCAA tournament, as he always has his teams ready to play during March Madness.  Look for a focused and determined effort out of Tennessee, and they will get an easy win and cover.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Utah State vs. Marquette 12:30pm EST
Selection:  MARQUETTE -4.5 (L)
Profile:  Marquette still played well despite losing their senior point guard Domenic James for the season with an injury.  They continued to fight and hang with the best teams in the Big East, even though it didn’t usually translate to outright wins.  Utah State is not a bracket buster team, despite their outstanding straight up record.  The Aggies had a very weak non-conference schedule with Utah and BYU being their toughest opponents.  Marquette’s guards are too athletic and quick for Utah State to defend.  The Golden Eagles will look to make a statement in this game, as they will be motivated to show people that they can play well without James.  Look for them to get a comfortable win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Cornell vs. Missouri 3:00pm EST
Selection:  MISSOURI -12.5 (W)
Profile:  The Ivy League is arguably one of the weakest conferences in all of Division I basketball.  That showed last season in the NCAA tournament when Cornell was completely blown out by Stanford.  There is simply too much of a talent gap for Ivy League teams to get games close against quality opponents.  Syracuse, Minnesota, Indiana, Siena, and St. John’s were all able to get relatively easy wins over the Big Red.  Missouri is a bad match-up for Cornell as well because of the Tigers high pressure defense.  They love to play up-tempo under head coach Mike Anderson, which puts a premium on opposing teams having good ball handlers.  Cornell simply doesn’t have the guard play needed to keep this game close.  Look for Missouri to get a blowout win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Arizona vs. Utah 7:10pm EST
Selection:  ARIZONA +1 (W)
Profile:  Arizona barely made it into the tournament as one of the last at-large bids, but they have a very quality team.  They went through a tough stretch of playing three straight road games, as well as having to face Arizona State in the 1st round of the PAC 10 tournament.  The Wildcats have three very talented players in Jordan Hill, Nic Wise, and Chase Budinger.  Utah simply has no one capable of matching up against those three players.  I expect Arizona’s big three players to step up in this game, as they will want to prove their doubters wrong.  Look for the Wildcats to get the tournament win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

USC vs. Boston College 7:20pm EST
Selection:  USC -2.5 (W)
Profile:  USC overcame injuries and some mid-season struggles and have hit their stride at just the right time.  Their run through the Pac-10 tournament was no fluke, as this team has tremendous defense and excellent athletes all over the floor.  Sometimes in the tournament oddsmakers tip their hand and this game is one of those occasions.  There are some very strong reasons why USC, a 10th seed, is a 2.5 point favorite against a higher seeded Boston College team.  DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson, and Daniel Hackett will have huge performances in this game, as the Eagles have no one to match-up against all three players.  The Trojans hold a dominant edge in rebounding and defense in this game, as well as better overall athleticism.  Look for USC to get an easy win in the 1st round.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Portland State vs. Xavier 7:25pm EST
Selection:  PORTLAND STATE +10.5 (L)
Profile:  Xavier showed their youth down the stretch this season, as their younger players were not able to finish the season strong.  The Musketeers were just 5-5 straight up and against the spread in their last ten games this season, including road losses at Richmond, Charlotte, Dayton, and Duquesne.  The youthful nature of this team will be their biggest problem in this game as well.  Meanwhile, Portland State has played very well against the best non-conference teams on their schedule.  They won outright at Gonzaga, lost by only one point at Washington, and played Baylor much tougher than the final score indicated.  Portland State is an experienced team as well.  They also have the added advantage of playing this game in Boise, Idaho, so the Vikings will have a dominant advantage from their fan base.  Xavier has struggled all season away from home, and now they have to face a Portland State team playing a game very close to their campus.  Xavier’s inexperience will cost them in this game.  Look for Portland State to pull off the upset.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Siena vs. Ohio State 9:40pm EST
Selection:  OHIO STATE -3 (L)
Profile:  Ohio State dramatically improved throughout the season after finally overcoming the loss of David Lighty.  The Buckeyes have a huge edge in athleticism in this game, as Siena does not have the personnel to match-up against them.  The Saints are being given too much credit from the oddsmakers just because of their upset win over Vanderbilt last season.  However, this team was unable to get wins against the best teams on their schedule this season.  This game is also being played in Dayton, which means it will essentially be a home game for the Buckeyes.  Ohio State has a great deal of athleticism and is playing their best basketball at just the right time.  Look for them to get the win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 19

Butler vs. LSU 12:20pm EST
Selection:  LSU -2.5 (W)
Profile:  LSU is being severely discounted here based on their performance in the SEC tournament.  The Tigers were a step above the rest of the SEC teams throughout the season, but they simply did not show up against a motivated Mississippi State team.  The Tigers have tournament experience though, more so than Butler.  Only Matt Howard returns for Butler from last year’s tournament team, so they are inexperienced at the guard position.  Their youthfulness showed down the stretch against the best teams on their schedule.  Both Cleveland State and Wright State were able to get point spread covers against them in the Horizon League tournament, with the Vikings getting the outright win as well.  LSU also has vastly better athletes than Butler, as well as the best player on the floor in guard Marcus Thornton.  The Tigers have excellent size as well.  Butler has a mismatch against LSU at every position, and they have no answer for Thornton.  Look for the Tigers to come out with a focused effort after their loss in the conference tournament.  Butler simply doesn’t have the same experience from a season ago, and it will allow a more talented LSU team to get the point spread cover.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Northern Iowa vs. Purdue 2:30pm EST
Selection:  PURDUE -8 (L)
Profile:  The Missouri Valley Conference is down this season from previous years, and they were only able to get one team into the tournament this season.  One of the more surprising outcomes from this season was the performance of the MVC teams in bracket buster games.  Northern Iowa and Illinois State were easily beaten by teams from the supposedly weaker Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.  In addition, they had straight up and point spread losses to non-conference teams Iowa, Iowa State, Wyoming, and Marquette.  The Panthers simply weren’t able to step up against teams out of conference this season.  Meanwhile, Purdue is a dark horse contender to make it to the Final Four.  They have everything needed for a deep run in the tournament, as they play tough defense, good inside/outside play, and experience.  The Boilermakers went through a tough stretch late in the season when Robbie Hummel was suffering through a back injury.  However, he’s fully healthy now, and Purdue showed what they are capable of with their Big 10 tournament title.  The Boilermakers weren’t feel any ill effects from that tournament, as I feel that they needed a good showing to fully convince themselves what they are capable of.  As a result, their tournament title gives them a great deal of confidence heading into this game.  Northern Iowa is simply over matched in this game, and they are over valued because of previous Missouri Valley teams which got upset wins in the tournament.  Look for Purdue to get a blowout win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mississippi State vs. Washington 4:55pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON -5.5 (W)
Profile:  Washington is one of the more disrespected teams in the entire country.  They won the Pac 10 regular season title and had several impressive wins throughout conference play.  They struggled at the start of the year but closed the season in impressive fashion.  Now they get to play their first game of the tournament very close to home in Portland, Oregon.  Mississippi State is just happy to be here after winning the SEC Championship.  Their biggest advantage over teams is their big man Jarvis Varnado, but Washington will be able to take away that strength with the dominant inside play of Jon Brockman.  The Huskies are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, and they have outstanding guard play to complement Brockman.  Mississippi State really struggled in non-conference play with losses against Washington State, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Charlotte, and San Diego.  Now they have to travel across the country and play almost a home game for Washington.  The Bulldogs struggled away from home all season, and they won’t be able to keep this game close.  Look for Washington to get a dominant opening round win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Minnesota at Texas 7:10pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS -4 (W)
Profile:  Minnesota is the weakest at-large bid into the NCAA tournament.  They simply have not been able to step up against better competition down the stretch.  In the months of February and March, the Golden Gophers only wins were against Northwestern, Indiana, and Wisconsin, yet they still received an at-large bid.  They finished the season on a 6-8 straight up record over their last 14 games, as well as going a dismal 4-11 against the spread record since the middle of January.  Minnesota has simply been an over-rated and under performing team during the bulk of their conference schedule.  Texas has been inconsistent for most of the season, but they have several excellent players who are capable of stepping up when motivated.  The Longhorns also have a great inside-outside play with emerging center Dexter Pittman and star guard A.J. Abrams.  Minnesota has no one capable of matching up against these two players, as well as talented Longhorn forward Damion James.  Texas also had non-conference wins this year against UCLA, at Villanova, and at Wisconsin.  This team is capable of stepping up and dominating an over-rated Minnesota team.  Look for the Longhorns to get a blowout win.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Akron vs. Gonzaga 7:25 pm EST
Selection:  GONZAGA -12.5 (W)
Profile:  The Mid-American Conference is arguably the worst mid-major conference in college basketball this season.  One of the biggest indications of that is the performance of their teams in the bracket buster games of a few weeks ago.  MAC teams were blown out by several teams, including some very questionable performances against weaker teams.  Valparaiso was able to handle Akron relatively easily in their bracket buster game.  They were able to beat the Zips by 8 points, in a game that saw Akron just get outplayed.  This game will be essentially a home game for Gonzaga, as they will get to play in Portland, Oregon, just a short drive from their campus.  The Bulldogs are a tremendously talented team and are playing with a chip on their shoulder after their embarrassing home loss to Memphis earlier this season.  Gonzaga really focused after that blowout loss and have destroyed everyone in their path, including a quality St. Mary’s team.  The Bulldogs are the real deal, with non-conference wins against Tennessee, Maryland, Oklahoma State, and Washington State, as well as a tightly contested overtime loss to Connecticut.  Look for Gonzaga to get a blowout win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

VCU vs. UCLA 9:50pm EST
Selection:  VCU +7 (W)
Profile:  UCLA has shown a strong home/road dichotomy this season with road losses at Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, and Texas, as well as point spread losses at Washington State and Oregon.  The Bruins also had a neutral court straight up loss to Michigan this season as well.  UCLA has a tough draw here of having to travel across the country and play Virginia Commonwealth in Philadelphia, so the Rams should have a decent advantage with their fans.  VCU is one of the best mid-major teams in the country in arguable one of the top three mid-major conferences in the country.  The Colonial Athletic Association is loaded with excellent athletes that are comparable to BCS conference teams.  CAA schools have had tremendous success against BCS conference teams throughout the last few years.  They are also battle tested this year with non-conference games against Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, and Rhode Island.  The biggest key to this game though is VCU’s point guard, Eric Maynor.  He is a 4 year senior with loads of experience and past success in the NCAA tournament.  The Rams will be able to get several more quality possessions and limit turnovers with him handling the ball every time down the court.  VCU also has quality players which will be able to exploit UCLA if they try to focus solely on Maynor.  UCLA has struggled all season away from home, and they will be taken down to the wire by VCU.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 17

George Mason at Penn State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  GEORGE MASON +6 (W)
Profile:  Penn State was one of the last bubble teams to not get into the NCAA tournament, and now they face to face a very athletic George Mason team in a game that they will not be motivated to play.  The Colonials will be extremely motivated to play a BCS conference school, and they have had a great deal of success against bigger conference teams over the last few years.  In addition, George Mason has played well on the road this season.  The Colonials will want this game much more than the Nittany Lions, as Penn State will be disappointed over not getting into the tournament.  George Mason has comparable athletes and has an excellent chance of winning this game outright.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Weber State at San Diego State 10:00pm EST
Selection:  WEBER STATE +12.5 (L)
Profile:  This game is a case which features two teams which finished the season with disappointing results.  Both schools were hoping for spots in the NCAA tournament, but they each lost their conference tournament championship.  However, San Diego State played their championship game just three days ago, and they had to play three games in three days.  It will be very hard for them to get up for playing supposed lowly Weber State after a grueling tournament and a disappointment of not making it into the big dance.  Weber State faced several schools from better conferences this season, such as Arizona, Utah, BYU, and Utah State.  They played very well in their road games at Arizona and Utah, as they become adjusted to playing against better teams.  Weber State just has to keep this game close in order to cover the spread.  Look for this game to be decided in the final minute.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Washington State at St. Mary’s 11:00pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON STATE +4.5 (L)
Profile:  This game is a very tough draw for St. Mary’s.  They were one of the last two bubble teams not to get into the NCAA tournament, and the Gaels now have to face a grinding, strong defensive team in Washington State.  The Cougars are excited to play in the NIT after a tough season, as several of their young players took the entire year to develop.  Washington State was competitive in every game down the stretch as a result.  They played fairly well on the road, despite not winning games outright.  The Cougars had close road losses at USC, Cal, and Washington, but they were able to win outright at UCLA.  Washington State wants this game much more than St. Mary’s, and they won’t be faced by the Gaels home court.  Look for the underdog to win outright.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 15

Mississippi State vs. Tennessee 1:00pm EST
Selection:  MISSISSIPPI STATE +5 (W)
Profile:  Tennessee has more than likely secured a berth in the NCAA tournament, while Mississippi State will arguably need a win here to get an invitation.  The Volunteers used a hot shooting performance to get a nine point win over Auburn yesterday.  However, they allowed the Tigers to shoot 46% from the field.  Mississippi State is playing like a team on a mission with two very impressive wins over LSU and South Carolina in consecutive games.  The Bulldogs have the added confidence of knowing that they can play against Tennessee, as they only lost by five points to them back in late February.  Mississippi State will play with more intensity in this game, which is critical because the Volunteers defense has been porous lately.  I look for effort to be the difference, especially with Tennessee being this much of a favorite.  Look for the Bulldogs to take this game down to the wire with a chance to win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Florida State vs. Duke 1:00pm EST
Selection:  FLORIDA STATE +5.5 (L)
Profile:  Florida State proved just 12 days ago that they are just as good, if not better, than Duke.  Their athleticism gave them a great edge over the Blue Devils, even on Duke’s home floor.  The Seminoles won the field goal percentage battle 50% to 40%, as well as the rebounding edge, 39-35.  Duke has one of the strongest home court advantages as well, so that performance becomes even better.  In addition, Florida State has the best player on the floor with Toney Douglas.  Duke is over-rated, bottom line.  Florida State might just be the better team between these two groups, yet they are a substantial underdog on a neutral court.  Another factor that could come into play here is toughness.  Florida State showed a great deal of resiliency in their win over North Carolina, and they are going to give Duke everything they can handle.  The Seminoles have an edge in athleticism here as well.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Ohio State vs. Purdue 3:30pm EST
Selection:  OHIO STATE +6 (W)
Profile:  Ohio State had a very impressive performance against Michigan State on Saturday.  They used solid offensive play and stifling defense to blowout the Spartans.  Now they get to play a huge revenge game against a Purdue team which embarrassed them on their home floor just a few games ago.  The biggest factors going against the Boilermakers in this game are the lack of home court advantage and scoring.  Purdue’s offense really struggled against Illinois, despite winning by margin.  They just shot 38% from the field which allowed the Illini to make the game much closer than it should have been.  Ohio State has played better and better throughout the season, and they had an impressive performance against a very good Michigan State team.  The Buckeyes offense was very good against the Spartans, which will be vital in this game against a very good Purdue defense.  The Boilermakers offensive struggles will be their Achilles heel in this game, as it will keep the Buckeyes in the game throughout.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 14

UMBC vs. Binghamton 11:00am
Selection:  BINGHAMTON -5.5 (W)
Profile:  This game will be played on Binghamton’s home court, and they will have a huge advantage from their fan base.  The Bearcats dominated the Retrievers at home just a few games ago as well.  Binghamton is extremely well coached under Kevin Broadus, who is in his second year.  He has dramatically changed the program around and will not let his team blow their chance to make it to the NCAA tournament.  He has the luxury of having a very talented group of transfer players as well, even though there is a great deal of controversy surrounding them.  The Bearcats are out to make a big statement in this game and will get a blowout win on their home floor.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Florida State vs. North Carolina 1:30pm EST
Selection:  FLORIDA STATE +9 (W)
Profile:  Florida State is the third best team in the ACC, even though the betting public does not agree.  Consequently, the Seminoles continue to be undervalued against teams like North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and Wake Forest.  There is also excellent value in this game as well.  North Carolina will be playing once again without their star guard, Ty Lawson.  His absence significantly weakened the Tar Heels attack on Friday, as Virginia Tech was leading that game throughout.  In addition, North Carolina has a #1 seed locked up, so they don’t absolutely need to win these games, and they have no reason to win this game by margin.  Florida State played North Carolina very tough back on January 28th, losing on a last second three pointer.  Ty Lawson was critical to the Tar Heels in that game, so his injury is going to dramatically impact their ability to win this game by margin, if at all.  Look for Florida State to take this game down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Ohio State vs. Michigan State 1:40pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 126.5 POINTS (L)
Profile:  These two teams are coming off of sluggish offensive performances, but they were able to play stifling defense to make up for it.  In addition, both of these teams have given up less than 60 points in 6 out of their last 7 combined games.  They will not be motivated to play an up-tempo game here, as both teams came off of hard fought wins yesterday.  Michigan State’s games go over the total when they decide to push the tempo and increase overall game possessions.  Their defense is too strong for their games to become shootouts.  Look for both teams to ramp up on the defensive end and for the game to be played at a slower pace.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Maryland vs. Duke 3:30pm EST
Selection:  MARYLAND +9 (W)
Profile:  Duke continues to be over-rated, and they don’t play well away from home, bottom line.  They struggled severely to beat Boston College yesterday, and now they have to face a motivated Maryland team, which is playing their best basketball of the season.  The Terrapins were able to fight the Blue Devils down to the wire just a few weeks ago, in a close home loss.  In fact, Maryland actually out shot Duke in that game, as they had a significantly higher shooting percentage.  In addition, Duke can’t improve their NCAA tournament seeding much in this conference tournament, even with two more wins.  Maryland is going to bring more intensity to this game, as they will be determined not to lose three straight games to Duke this season.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Illinois vs. Purdue 4:05pm EST
Selection:  PURDUE -3.5 (W)
Profile:  Purdue is a vastly better team than Illinois, no doubt.  The Illini offense really struggles to score, even against average defensive teams.  Now they have to face one of the toughest defenses in the Big 10 in Purdue.  The Boilermakers absolutely shut down opposing offenses, and they are even more effective now with a healthy Robbie Hummel.  They showed their motivation for this tournament with their blowout win over Penn State.  Illinois did have a double digit win against Michigan, but that win was mainly because of a horrendous shooting performance from the Wolverines.  Purdue is motivated for this game, and I look for Illinois to have a horrible offensive game.  They will bring their best effort in order to get a revenge win, as Illinois embarrassed them the last time these two teams met.  The Boilermakers will get the outright win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Baylor vs. Missouri 6:00pm EST
Selection:  BAYLOR +5 (L)
Profile:  This game is the season for Baylor, as Missouri is guaranteed to have an excellent seed in the tournament.  The Bears need a win here in order to get to the tournament, as a loss would give them 14 losses on the season.  They have under achieved all season, despite having a senior laden group.  However, Baylor’s talented and experienced guards match up very well against Missouri’s high pressure defense.  Meanwhile, the Tigers two big wins and covers in the Big 12 tournament are slightly skewed and not as impressive as they look.  They got to face a Texas Tech team coming off of an emotional come back win over Texas A&M, in a game where one player’s huge performance was the only reason for the win.  In addition, they got to face Oklahoma State, which was coming off of a big revenge win over Oklahoma.  In addition, their star player, Byron Eaton, suffered a leg injury during the game, which severely impacted the game.  The Bears didn’t have a letdown against Texas, coming back for the win in impressive fashion.  Look for Baylor to win this game outright or take to the last shot.
3 UNIT SELECTION

USC vs. Arizona State 6:00pm EST
Selection:  ARIZONA STATE -1.5 (L)
Profile:  Arizona State is the vastly better team in this match-up, evident by their strong win over Washington last night.  Their defense is absolutely stifling on the perimeter.  The Trojans are coming off of a win over their rival UCLA, which has been over-rated all season.  The Sun Devils have great inside/outside play with Jeff Pendergraph and James Harden.  Arizona State is the better overall team, have stronger team defense, and they have the best player on the court.  All they have to do is win this game outright essentially to cover this small of a spread.  They are motivated to close out this tournament strong and get the conference title.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Utah State vs. Nevada 10:00pm EST
Selection:  NEVADA -1 (L)
Profile:  Nevada is playing the best basketball of any team in the WAC over the last few weeks.  They have hit a sudden hot streak and are now in position to get a NCAA tournament bid and the conference title on their home floor.  They completely dominated Utah State just two weeks ago.  In that game, the Wolf Pack led by 15 points at halftime and cruised to the easy win.  In fact, that game wasn’t competitive after the first ten minutes of the game.  Now, they get to face Utah State again on their home floor, as this game is being played in Reno, Nevada.  The Wolf Pack has won four straight games since then and has continued their excellent play.  Look for them to get the win and the automatic bid on their home floor.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 13

Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina 12:00pm EST
Selection:  VIRGINIA TECH +11.5 (W)
Profile:  Virginia Tech showed a great deal of resiliency and toughness with their dominant win over Miami yesterday.  Despite suffering several losses to end the season, the Hokies played much better than people think.  They went through a brutal schedule to end the season, having to end the regular season with five straight games against Florida State (twice), Clemson, Duke, and North Carolina.  Tech was competitive in every game though, despite it not translating into straight up wins.  Meanwhile, North Carolina will more than likely be the odds on favorite to win the NCAA championship after the conference tournaments are over.  However, they have arguably secured a #1 seed already, and their star guard, Ty Lawson, is banged up with a toe injury.  The Tar Heels have no reason to try to win this game by margin, but they have to face a quality Virginia Tech team which is fighting for an NCAA tournament bid.  In addition, the Hokies already have the added confidence of knowing that they played the Tar Heels very tough just a few games ago.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan State vs. Minnesota 12:00pm EST
Selection:  MICHIGAN STATE -6 (W)
Profile:  Michigan State has been the best team all season in the Big 10 Conference.  One of the keys to their success has been their strong play away from home.  The Spartans are 12-2 straight up and 8-4-1 ATS in road and neutral court games this season.  They have also destroyed Minnesota in both match-ups against them this season.  Meanwhile, Minnesota has been unable to play well against the better teams in the Big 10, even when they were in must win situations.  The Gophers only straight up wins in February and March have come against Northwestern, Indiana, and Wisconsin.  Michigan State also has a great deal to play for.  They are trying to secure a high seed in the tournament, but they must play well in this tournament in order to impress the tournament committee.  Look for Michigan State to blowout Minnesota.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Kentucky vs. LSU 1:30pm EST
Selection:  LSU -1.5 (W)
Profile:  First and foremost, LSU is a significant step above Kentucky as an overall team.  They showed that in the match-up between these two teams just a few weeks ago winning outright.  In that game, the Tigers jumped out to a huge lead at halftime, but they relaxed in the 2nd half, allowing Kentucky to get as much as a ten point lead.  However, once LSU refocused they were able to storm back and get the outright win on a last possession three pointer.  What made that win even more impressive was that the Wildcats were very motivated for that game, as well as having a strong home court advantage.  However, neither of those two advantages were enough to overcome the Wildcats disadvantages as a team.  In this game, LSU is extremely motivated, as they want to make up for their disappointing end to the season.  The Tigers had nothing to play for after clinching the SEC regular season title, which was the main cause for their slide.  However, they will bring a focused effort in this game and get a dominant outright win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin 2:30pm EST
Selection:  WISCONSIN -1.5 (L)
Profile:  Bo Ryan’s team has showed a great deal of toughness in overcoming their early season slump.  They have won seven of their last nine games straight up.  These two teams met a month ago, with the Badgers getting a five point win at home.  However, what is notable about that game is that Wisconsin won despite shooting only 36% from the field.  Meanwhile, Ohio State was able to shoot 55% from the field but still lost the game.  The Badgers controlled the boards, out-rebounding the Buckeyes 30-21.  In addition, they caused Ohio State to commit 19 turnovers.  Wisconsin absolutely needs a win to secure a tournament bid, so they will come out fighting from start to finish.  The Badgers are a very resilient and tough team, which will be the difference in this game.  Ryan’s teams have been a very tough out in post season play, and they will get the straight up and point spread cover in this game.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan vs. Illinois 6:30pm EST
Selection:  MICHIGAN +2.5 (L)
Profile:  Michigan has quietly improved dramatically over the second half of the season.  They absolutely destroyed Iowa yesterday, in a game that didn’t require them to exert much energy.  The Wolverines are also playing for their tournament lives in this game, as they need at least one more win to have a chance to make the tournament.  Meanwhile, Illinois doesn’t have much to play for in this game, as they are a lock to make the tournament.  They also won’t dramatically improve their seeding in the tournament with a few wins.  The problem in this game for Illinois will be their scoring.  They have really struggled to score away from home this season, which has caused the Illini to have some poor road performances.  Michigan will be the much more motivated team in this game, which will allow them to get the outright win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Baylor vs. Texas 7:00pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 141 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Both teams played high energy games the day before, which will cause this game to be much more sluggish and slow paced.  Baylor expended a great deal of effort in their win against Kansas, and Texas had to fight throughout to pull out a win over Kansas State.  In addition, these two teams have tended strongly toward the under late in this season.  Baylor’s last nine games have gone under the total, while Texas’ has had four out of their last five games go under as well.  The Longhorns really rely on defense to get wins, and they will focus a great deal on the defensive end here.  Look for a slower paced game, as this contest will be played well under the total.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Arizona State vs. Washington 9:00pm EST
Selection:  ARIZONA STATE -1 (W)
Profile:  This game is a huge revenge situation for Arizona State, as they get a chance to avenge an overtime road loss to Washington.  Overall, the Sun Devils are a slightly better team than the Huskies, evident by their strong showing on the road against Washington just a few weeks ago.  The Huskies were very motivated in that contest, but they won’t be as focused in this game.  Washington accomplished their goal of winning the Pac 10 regular season title and is going to get a decent seed in the tournament.  In addition, Arizona State matches up fairly well against them.  Jeff Pendergraph will be able to get enough rebounds on the inside and somewhat slow down Jon Brockman.  Arizona State has the best player on the court in James Harden as well.  The biggest key in this game will be the Sun Devils stifling defense.  I look for them to really frustrate Washington’s guards, and Harden will have a huge game.  Arizona State has lost to Washington twice this season, but they will be very motivated to get revenge here.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Boston College vs. Duke 9:20pm EST
Selection:  BOSTON COLLEGE +10 (W)
Profile:  Duke should not be anywhere near this large of a favorite against a team that beat them earlier this season.  The Blue Devils are a completely different team away from Cameron Indoor Stadium and haven’t dominated conference competition like in previous years.  Boston College’s win over Duke in the regular season was no fluke, as the Eagles are a quality team with excellent talent.  They controlled that game throughout as well.  Now Duke is an inflated favorite, despite not playing well against quality competition away from home.  Boston College did not have to exert too much energy either in their last game against Virginia.  Look for this game to be close throughout with Duke pulling out a close win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Florida vs. Auburn 9:50pm EST
Selection:  AUBURN +3.5 (W)
Profile:  This game is a classic situation where one over-rated team is going to meet one very under-rated team.  Auburn was one of the hottest teams in college basketball to close the season, despite being ignored by the oddsmakers and betting public.  Now they are a significant underdog to a Florida team that has struggled throughout the year.  Auburn only lost to Florida by three points back in early January, but the Tigers are vastly improved since then.  They have really shut down opposing offenses recently, allowing only 39% from the field down the stretch.  This match-up is essentially a play-in game for the NCAA tournament, so look for Auburn to come out with a great deal of intensity.  The Tigers will win this game outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 12

Mississippi vs. Kentucky 1:00pm EST
Selection:  MISSISSIPPI +7 (L)
Profile:  Mississippi has been impressive this season despite several devastating injuries to start the season.  Coach Andy Kennedy has gotten excellent contribution from younger players on his team, which has translated to late season success.  Their only recent poor performance was in a game against Alabama in which they had several starters either sick or banged up.  The Rebels also beat Kentucky outright earlier in the season.  Kentucky absolutely folded at the end of the season, despite knowing that they needed to end the season on a strong note.  They lost five out of their last six games, including a horrible home loss to Georgia as a 17 point favorite.  The Wildcats have simply been over-rated all season, evident by their 2-8 against the spread record over their last 10 games.  Mississippi is a motivated team facing a Kentucky team playing with nerves of trying to make the tournament.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Indiana vs. Penn State 5:00pm EST
Selection:  INDIANA +9 (L)
Profile:  Indiana has continued to play hard under 1st year coach Tom Crean.  They have shown improvement throughout the season as well.  The Hoosiers have the added confidence of knowing that they can play with Penn State because of a close three point loss to them just two weeks ago.  In addition, that game was played at Penn State with the Nittany Lions needing a good performance to make it to the tournament.  The Nittany Lions are going to be the much more nervous team in this match-up, as every national media outlet has them labeled as an obvious bubble team.  Penn State also hasn’t been able to beat teams by margin this season, as they play up or down to the opponent they’re facing.  Indiana’s best guard, Devan Dumes, is going to play in this game after taking a few days to rest his knee injury.  He is the absolute key to Indiana’s success.  Look for the Hoosiers to take this game down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Ohio vs. Bowling Green 7:00pm EST
Selection:  BOWLING GREEN -2.5 (W)
Profile:  Bowling Green absolutely destroyed Ohio in their last game because of some strong match-up advantages.  They have been playing very well in the 2nd half of the season as well.  Meanwhile, Ohio has really struggled away from their home court this season.  They are just 2-13 straight up as the visitor this season, and they are only 8-9 in conference.  Bowling Green has done much better against conference competition with an 11-5 straight up record.  Ohio does have a huge revenge angle in this game, but it won’t matter because Bowling Green is the vastly superior team.  Look for Bowling Green to get an easy win over a slumping Ohio team.
3 UNIT SELECTION

West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh 7:00pm EST
Selection:  PITTSBURGH -4 (L)
Profile:  Pittsburgh has won both match-ups between these two teams this season because of obvious advantages.  West Virginia has really struggled with the size of the Panthers, as well as the inside play of DeJuan Blair.  In addition, Pittsburgh’s defense has really been able to shut down the Mountaineers outside shooting.  West Virginia had to play a high energy game yesterday against Notre Dame, as the Irish kept fighting back throughout the game.  As a result, the Mountaineers legs are going to be tired in the 2nd half, as they face a refreshed and motivated Pittsburgh team.  The Panthers haven’t played in five days since their win over Connecticut.  Pittsburgh is also playing for a #1 seed, and they have been very strong in the Big East tournament under coach Jamie Dixon.  Look for them to get a dominating win here.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 11

DePaul vs. Providence 12:00pm EST
Selection:  DEPAUL +8.5 (L)
Profile:  I absolutely do not trust Providence in this situation.  They have a tremendous amount of pressure of being one of the most well publicized bubble teams.  Every bubble discussion on the national sports scene has included the Friars, so they are well aware of the fact that they need a strong showing in the Big East tournament.  In addition, they have to go up against a DePaul team that has a great deal of confidence after their first conference win.  Now they get to play the very next day, which will allow them to keep momentum.  The Blue Demons are obviously going to be the looser team in this game, as they have absolutely no pressure.  In addition, DePaul was able to play Providence very tough on the road earlier this season.  The Blue Demons have also played much better from a point spread perspective over the last few weeks of the season, covering four out of their last five games ATS.  Providence has routinely flopped this season in higher pressure games, especially away from home.  They have been blown out by Villanova, Notre Dame, Louisville, and West Virginia recently in critical games.  I expect them to lay another egg in this game, as DePaul will come out fired up after their motivation building win just a day earlier.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Colorado vs. Texas 3:00pm EST
Selection:  COLORADO +13.5 (W)
Profile:  There are several keys to this game, and most of them have to deal with Texas.  The Longhorns are a step below their teams from the last few years.  As a result, they have not been a good point spread team this season, going 11-16 ATS.  Texas has especially struggled as a large favorite, as they haven’t been able to consistently blowout these supposed weaker teams.  This season they are just 3-6 ATS as a double digit favorite.  However, they are 0-5 ATS against Big 12 competition as a double digit favorite.  The Longhorns have simply been unable to beat better teams by margin this season.  In addition, Texas has the added pressure of knowing that they need a strong showing in order to make the NCAA tournament.  Therefore, there are two excellent reasons to go against Texas in this game.  First, they will probably come out nervous because of the added pressure, so Colorado will be the much looser team.  In addition, even if Texas gets a big lead, they will need to rest their players for the next game, leaving the possibility of a backdoor cover.  Colorado also has the advantage of knowing that they were able to take Texas down to the wire earlier in the season.  The Buffaloes lost to the Longhorns in overtime at home earlier this season, but they were able to play very well against them.  One final factor in this game is Texas’ poor performance away from home.  They are just 4-6 straight up on the road and 6-8 ATS on home and neutral courts this season.  Look for Colorado to keep this game within the number. 
3 UNIT SELECTION

Massachusetts vs. Duquesne 6:30pm EST
Selection:  DUQUESNE -2 (W)
Profile:  First and foremost, Duquesne is the better team in this match-up.  They do not have the same name appeal of other traditional Atlantic 10 powers like Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, George Washington, and UMASS, so they have been under-rated all season.  They are once again getting disrespected in this game as well.  Duquesne is also the much better team away from home in this match-up.  They are 8-6 straight up and 6-6 ATS away from home.  Massachusetts is only 4-10 straight up and 5-8 ATS on the road this season.  Second, the Dukes absolutely pounded the Minutemen at UMASS just a few weeks ago, in a game that they controlled from start to finish.  In addition, Duquesne ended the season with blowout loss at Dayton, so they will come in with a focused effort in this game.  Duquesne is one of the dark horses to make a run at the Atlantic 10 tournament title, and they will completely blowout an overwhelmed UMASS team.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Texas A&M vs. Texas Tech 9:30pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS A&M -6 (L)
Profile:  Texas A&M finished the season very strongly, going 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS over their last 6 games.  Texas Tech had their biggest game of the season with their win over Kansas in their last home game, so this game really doesn’t mean much to them.  The Red Raiders starting line-up isn’t very experienced either, which means they are all looking ahead to next year.  Meanwhile, Texas A&M has a great deal to play for in this game.  They need another win or two to lock up a tournament spot, and Texas Tech is a great opponent for them to face.  The Aggies absolutely dominated the Red Raiders when these two teams played each other a few weeks ago.  However, the final score was very misleading, as A&M only came away with a 6 point win.  In that game, the Aggies went 30-51 from the free throw line, while Texas Tech shot 45% from the three point line.  However, Texas A&M had a decisive edge on the inside, out rebounding Texas Tech 38-24.  The Aggies controlled the game throughout.  Finally, A&M has been a good team away from home this season, going 9-4 ATS on the road.  Look for Texas A&M to get a blowout win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 9

Chattanooga vs. Charleston 7:00pm EST
Selection:  CHARLESTON -2.5 (L)
Profile:  Charleston is one of the least publicized quality mid-major teams in college basketball.  They haven’t received any publicity this season because of Davidson’s supposed dominance of the Southern Conference.  However, the Cougars are focused coming into this game, and they also have a great deal of momentum after their dominating win over Davidson yesterday.  They showed a great deal of resiliency in their comeback win, as the Cougars were down by 9 points at halftime.  Charleston also dominated Chattanooga in both games this season as well.  However, linesmakers are pricing this game similarly to when these two teams met at Chattanooga.  They have failed to adjust to Charleston’s improved play and true value.  There is also a great deal of value because oddsmakers are giving Chattanooga more points for playing this game in their home arena.  Charleston will win this game easily.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Niagara vs. Siena 9:00pm EST
Selection:  SIENA -3.5 (W)
Profile:  Niagara needed double overtime to get past Rider in the MAAC semi-finals yesterday, and their tired legs were very evident late in the game.  They did not move without the ball at all, and their defensive intensity wasn’t there either.  Now they are forced to play an extremely motivated Siena team which has absolutely destroyed every opponent in the MAAC tournament.  In addition, they have a huge revenge angle, as Niagara pounded them at home just a few weeks ago.  However, the Saints had clinched 1st place in the MAAC and had nothing to play for.  Siena desperately wants to get to the tournament, as they have a team which can make a deep run.  They are the much better team in this match-up, and the get to play Niagara in what is essentially a home game for them.  In addition, the Saints will come very focused because of that loss to Niagara just a few weeks ago.  Look for Siena to absolutely blowout Niagara.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 8

Arkansas at Vanderbilt 2:00pm EST
Selection:  VANDERBILT -8 (W)
Profile:  Vanderbilt has been playing well lately, as they attempt to make a late push for the NCAA tournament.  They will likely need to make it to at least the SEC Championship game, but the Commodores have still not given up on the season.  They are coming off of a big road win at LSU and now get to come back home where they have been dominant recently.  The Commodores are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread at home over the last month.  They are facing an Arkansas team which is just trying to finish the season and move on to next year.  This will be the Razorbacks last game before the regular season, so they likely aren’t going to bring any kind of intensity after coming off of a demoralizing home overtime loss to Mississippi.  What makes that game even more frustrating for them is that they controlled it for most of the contest before faltering late.  One of the Razorbacks only strengths is Michael Washington on the inside.  However, Vanderbilt has an outstanding big man with A.J. Ogilvy who will neutralize Washington.  Look for the Commodores to finish the season with a blowout home win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Duke at North Carolina 4:00pm EST
Selection:  DUKE +8.5 (W)
Profile:  First and foremost, this point spread is too high in a rivalry game between two quality teams.  Duke has played well since their earlier season loss to North Carolina, going 5-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.  What’s even more impressive is their two straight road wins and covers at Maryland and at Virginia Tech.  They also got those road wins after an emotional home win over Wake Forest.  North Carolina has been an overpriced home team all season.  Before their point spread home cover against Georgia Tech in their last game, the Tar Heels have been a disaster at home from a point spread perspective.  They are also just 4-9 ATS at home this season.  Home court advantage hasn’t been a factor in this rivalry either.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Clemson at Wake Forest 6:00pm EST
Selection:  WAKE FOREST -5 (W)
Profile:  This game features two teams which already faced each other this season.  In that game, Wake Forest led throughout and proved they were the better team.  What’s even more impressive is that the game was at Clemson with the Tigers playing very motivated.  The Demon Deacons are the superior team in this match-up, and they now get to play the Tigers at home, where they have been dominant all season.  Clemson is not a top tier team, despite many people placing them in that category.  Because of that false perception, the Tigers are not priced correctly against the best teams on their schedule.  Look for the Demon Deacons to get a motivated home blowout over their conference rival.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Old Dominion vs. VCU 3:00pm EST
Selection:  OLD DOMINION +5.5 (L)
Profile:  Old Dominion has been playing their best basketball of the season in the last few weeks.  Over the last few weeks, the Monarchs have defeated all of the top teams in the CAA.  They have wins over George Mason, VCU, Northeastern, Drexel, and Hofstra over the last ten games.  The Monarchs showed a great deal of toughness in yesterday’s win over the Pride as well.  Meanwhile, VCU hasn’t played well away from home this season, and they are now a significant favorite against surging Old Dominion.  The Monarchs will take this game down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Fairfield vs. Siena 6:00pm EST
Selection:  SIENA -11.5 (W)
Profile:  Siena is on a mission to make it to the NCAA tournament, and they know that they have to win the MAAC tournament to accomplish their goal.  However, the Saints have the advantage of playing the conference tournament at home, giving them an added advantage.  Siena absolutely dominated Canisius yesterday in a blowout win.  I look for another focused effort from them today, especially against a Fairfield team that they completed dominated back in January.  Fairfield had to exert a lot of energy in their win yesterday against Manhattan as well.  Look for Siena to get a blowout win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Charleston at Davidson 6:00pm EST
Selection:  CHARLESTON +9 (W)
Profile:  This line is absolutely too high.  It is entirely based on public perception of Davidson, as everyone knows the Wildcats because of their star player Stephen Curry.  However, Charleston is very under-rated in the Southern Conference, and they have a 25-7 record this season, including a 17-5 conference record.  Charleston will be extremely motivated to knock off the supposed top team in the conference, as they have felt disrespected all season.  The Cougars are coming off of two straight blowout wins in tournament play and have been improving throughout the season.  They also beat Davidson outright just a month ago.  What is even more impressive is that the game was on the road, with Charleston as 16.5 point underdog.  The Cougars have been able to limit Curry in both contests, which is the key to beating Davidson.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.  Charleston covered the point spread against Davidson twice this season, and they will do the same today.
4 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 7

Connecticut at Pittsburgh 12:00pm EST
Selection:  PITTSBURGH -3.5 (W)
Profile:  This game comes down to a few critical keys.  First, Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut’s big man simply cannot match up against DeJuan Blair.  He was completely dominated in the first match-up between these teams earlier this season.  A great deal of UCONN’s success comes from the dominance they usually enjoy on the inside.  However, Blair and Pittsburgh’s size was too much for the Huskies earlier this season, and it will once again be a problem in this game.  Second, Connecticut is not the same team without guard Jerome Dyson.  They have really struggled from a point spread perspective without him in the line-up, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.  In addition, foul trouble will once again be a problem for UCONN.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has one of the strongest home court advantages in all of college basketball.  They didn’t need it in their last game against the Huskies, an outright win on the road.  Look for Pittsburgh to get a dominant home win as they have match-ups that Connecticut cannot handle.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Texas Tech at Iowa State 1:45pm EST
Selection:  IOWA STATE -3.5 (L)
Profile:  Texas Tech is coming off of their biggest game of the season, an emotional home win on Senior Night against Kansas.  Now they have to travel on the road to play conference bottom feeder Iowa State.  This is a huge emotional letdown spot for the Red Raiders.  Meanwhile, this game will be the last home contest for Iowa State.  Texas Tech has yet to win a road game this season, and Iowa State is 12-6 straight up at home.  They have a fairly strong home court advantage as well.  The Cyclones have home wins against Baylor, Colorado, and Nebraska this season.  Look for them to close out the year with a home win and point spread cover, as Texas Tech has a big letdown performance.
2 UNIT SELECTION

LSU at Auburn 4:00pm EST
Selection:  AUBURN -2 (W)
Profile:  LSU has already clinched the SEC regular season title, and they have their sights set on the post season now.  They showed their lack of concern with the rest of the regular season with the outright home loss to Vanderbilt.  Now they have to travel on the road to play an upstart Auburn team which has won seven of their last eight games.  In fact, Auburn has been playing better overall as a team than LSU in over the last few games.  In addition, they are coming off of a momentum building road win over in-state rival Alabama.  LSU was able to squeak out a close home win a few weeks ago when they were motivated just a few weeks ago.  However, Auburn is playing with much more intensity, and they will want this game more than LSU.  Look for the Tigers to get the straight up and ATS cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Texas at Kansas 4:00pm EST
Selection:  KANSAS -8.5 (W)
Profile:  Kansas was absolutely embarrassed by Texas Tech in their last game with a chance to win the Big 12 Conference regular season title.  They must win this game in order to secure the title, as a loss would give Missouri the Big 12 Championship.  Texas is a step down from a season ago and has struggled against better teams in the conference.  They have really struggled on the road this year as well, losing their last four games against the spread away from home.  The Longhorns continue to be priced as a better team, but they simply aren’t at the same level from previous seasons.  Kansas is almost unbeatable at home, even from a point spread perspective.  They are 10-2-1 ATS at home this season, blowing out almost every opponent.  Look for the most motivated performance of the entire season from Kansas, as this game will be a blowout from start to finish.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Louisville at West Virginia 9:00pm EST
Selection:  WEST VIRGINIA -2.5 (L)
Profile:  West Virginia has one of the stronger home court advantages in all of college basketball.  This season they are 13-2 straight up at home, with their only losses coming against Pittsburgh and Connecticut.  The Mountaineers have dominant wins and point spread covers at home against Providence, Notre Dame, and Villanova.  The biggest factor in this game is that ESPN will be broadcasting it on national primetime television, and College Gameday will be on campus that day.  This event is one of the biggest of the entire year for the campus.  West Virginia’s players and fans will be extremely fired up for this game.  Meanwhile, Louisville is one of the most over-rated teams among the top ten in the country.  They only beat West Virginia by six points at home a little over a month ago despite having a dominant advantage in shooting percentage.  In fact, the Mountaineers dominated that game in the second half, which resulted in a point spread cover despite being down by 20 points at halftime.  Once West Virginia settled down, they were able to make a furious come back.  I look for a very motivated performance from West Virginia, and so do the oddsmakers by making them a small home favorite.  They will use their excellent three point shooting and defensive intensity to get a dominant home win on nationally primetime television.    
3 UNIT SELECTION

Nevada at Boise State 10:15pm EST
Selection:  BOISE STATE -1 (L)
Profile:  Boise State has one of the strongest home/road dichotomies in the Western Athletic Conference.  They are 13-2 straight up and 8-5 against the spread on their home floor.  Their up-tempo style of play makes it tough for opposing teams to come in and match.  The Broncos have also shown the ability to beat quality teams at home with their win over Utah State.  The talent gap between these teams is not significant, yet the oddsmakers have priced them as such.  In addition, Boise State’s home court advantage is worth slightly more than the average team in the WAC.  Look for the Broncos to get the home win over the Wolf Pack.  
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 6

Charleston vs. UNC Greensboro 4:30pm EST
Selection:  CHARLESTON -12 (W)
Profile:  Charleston knows that they must win the Southern Conference in order to make the NCAA tournament.  They will bring a motivated effort today against the worst team in the conference, UNC Greensboro.  The Spartans have played equally bad at home as on the road, so look for another poor performance from them in this game.  Meanwhile, Charleston has already dominated Greensboro twice this season, winning both games by double digits.  The fact that this game is being played on a neutral court gives excellent line value, as Charleston has played well on the road while Greensboro has been horrible everywhere.  Look for this game to be a blowout and easy cover.
2 UNIT SELECTION

William & Mary vs. James Madison 6:00pm EST
Selection:  JAMES MADISON -2.5 (W)
Profile:  James Madison is definitely a dark horse contender in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament.  They have been able to play well against the best teams in conference this season, despite only an 18-13 straight up record.  They also match up very well against William & Mary, evident by their two easy straight up and point spread covers against them this season.  The Tribe has also struggled tremendously away from home this season with a road record of just 2-11 straight up.  James Madison is coming in motivated to this game, as their players think they have a serious shot at contending for the conference’s automatic bid to the tournament.  Look for them to get an easy win and cover.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Cleveland State vs. Illinois-Chicago 8:00pm EST
Selection:  CLEVELAND STATE -4.5 (L)
Profile:  Cleveland State is on a mission to win the Horizon League, but they have to get through Illinois-Chicago in the first round of the conference tournament.  They are the much better of these two teams and have played well against Illinois Chicago this season.  The Flames have been able to beat lesser opponents but have really struggled against better competition.  Look for Cleveland State to get a blowout win tonight.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 5

Tennessee at South Carolina 7:00pm EST
Selection:  SOUTH CAROLINA -1.5 (L)
Profile:  Tennessee has been an up and down team all season, and they are coming into this game off of a big road win at Florida.  Meanwhile, South Carolina has been one of the most under-rated teams in the SEC this season, and they are coming off of a horrible performance at Vanderbilt.  The Gamecocks also have a tremendous home court advantage this season, going 16-1 straight up, including several big wins.  Tennessee has struggled away from in conference play, losing ATS in their last four games before their win at Florida.  Look for South Carolina to come in with a very focused effort, as they try to make a late surge for the NCAA tournament.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Providence at Villanova 7:00pm EST
Selection:  PROVIDENCE +11 (L)
Profile:  Providence is in an absolute must win situation here, while Villanova doesn’t have anything to play for in this game.  The Wildcats are going to get a decent seeding in the tournament and have no reason to win this game in a blowout.  Meanwhile, the Friars absolutely need a win here and are in desperation mode.  They showed their desperation in their outright win at home against Pittsburgh, and I look for a repeat performance tonight.  Providence is a veteran filled team who has the ability to play well on the road.  Meanwhile, Villanova doesn’t have any dominating advantages over Providence that would allow them to get a blowout win.  Look for this game to come down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Oregon State at UCLA 10:30pm EST
Selection:  OREGON STATE +18.5 (L)
Profile:  Oregon State has really played well lately, despite their last game against Oregon.  The Beavers will come out extremely strong after getting absolutely blown out against their rival, despite leading at halftime and seemingly in control of the game.  Meanwhile, UCLA is coming off of a nice road win at Cal in a big primetime nationally televised game, so they will not likely be up for playing lowly Oregon State.  The Beavers have dramatically improved over the last few weeks, so look for them to give the Bruins a scare in this game.  Oregon State will keep this game close until the end.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 4

Boston College at N.C. State 7:00pm EST
Selection:  BOSTON COLLEGE +2 (L)
Profile:  Boston College cannot afford to lose this game if they want to secure a berth in the NCAA tournament.  The Eagles have played well on the road this season with wins at North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and Maryland.  They will get to face N.C. State while their students are on Spring Break, so the Wolf Pack’s home court advantage is much less than it usually is.  Maryland was able to get a fairly easy win at N.C. State on Sunday, and the diminished home court was evident.  The Eagles have an excellent chance to get into the tournament with a win in this game, as well as a winnable last game of the regular season against Georgia Tech at home.  Look for Boston College to get the outright road win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mississippi at Arkansas 8:05pm EST
Selection:  ARKANSAS -3.5 (L)
Profile:  This game will be the last home contest for Arkansas, so they will be motivated to get one last win in front of their fans.  Despite a horrible straight up record over the last ten games, they have played much better than most people think.  Their schedule has been loaded with games against the best teams in the SEC, such as LSU (twice), Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee.  However, they have been very competitive in almost every game recently.  They are 4-1 ATS against the above listed teams, despite having one of the youngest teams in college basketball.  Meanwhile, Mississippi is coming off of a blowout home loss to Alabama, as they are dealing with several banged up starters.  They haven’t been able to get much quality practice time in, and the Rebels have to go back out on the road.  In addition, they don’t have anyone to match up with Arkansas big man Michael Washington, so look for him to have a big game on the inside.  The Razorbacks have a strong home court advantage as well and will be motivated to win their last game in front of their friends and family.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Oklahoma at Missouri 9:00pm EST
Selection:  OKLAHOMA +4.5 (L)
Profile:  Oklahoma needs a win in this game in order to secure 2nd place in the Big 12 standings.  Meanwhile, Missouri continues to be over-rated.  They have been able to dominate weaker competition but looked nowhere near as strong against Kansas at home.  The Tigers need a furious late game rally to pull that game out, and now they are a decent favorite against one of the best teams in the country.  Missouri has absolutely no one who will be able to slow down Blake Griffin on the inside.  In addition, Oklahoma is much stronger of a team after playing without Blake Griffin against Kansas and for most of the game at Texas.  The Sooners players showed a great deal of resiliency in those games which will pay dividends in this game.  This game overall will come down to the wire, as Oklahoma will use Blake Griffin’s advantage on the inside to keep it very close.  Look for this game to come down to the final seconds.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Kansas at Texas Tech 9:30pm EST
Selection:  KANSAS -10.5 (L)
Profile:  Kansas is one of the hottest teams in the country, and they have a chance to wrap up the Big 12 regular season championship with a win in this game.  The Jayhawks play Texas in their last game of the season, so they won’t want to leave anything to chance in this game.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech has really struggled this season and has been routinely blown out at home, with never in doubt losses to Texas, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.  Kansas has gone 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games, including double digit road wins.  Texas Tech has given up on the season, and they won’t be able to keep this game close against a motivated Kansas team.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 3

Georgetown at St. John’s 7:30pm EST
Selection:  GEORGETOWN -6 (L)
Profile:  Georgetown has been able to show an ability to play relatively even with the best teams in the Big East Conference.  However, they have fallen on the wrong side of several toss up games, but the Hoyas got an impressive road win at Villanova on Saturday.  They are facing another must win game tonight against St. John’s.  Georgetown completely hammered South Florida a few weeks ago, showing the ability to blowout weaker teams on the road.  Meanwhile, St. John’s has been unable to stay competitive with the better teams in the Big East, both at home and on the road.  Look for the Hoyas to come in with a focused effort and get a blowout win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Kansas State at Oklahoma State 7:30pm EST
Selection:  OKLAHOMA STATE -5 (W)
Profile:  Oklahoma State is playing their best basketball of the season, as they have a great deal of confidence.  The Cowboys also have a very strong home court advantage and get to play another game at home after their big against Texas on Saturday.  Meanwhile, Kansas State has struggled against the better teams in the Big 12, getting blown out at Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska.  This game is also a must win for Oklahoma State if they want to make a late run at an NCAA tournament bid.  Meanwhile, Kansas State’s defense has struggled at times on the road as well.  Oklahoma State is the better overall team and they are improving with each game.  Look for the Cowboys to get a blowout home win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Florida State at Duke 8:00pm EST
Selection:  FLORIDA STATE +12 (W)
Profile:  Everyone has been talking about North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and Wake Forest in the ACC this season, but no one has mentioned Florida State as one of the better teams in the conference.  However, they are playing very well lately, especially on the road.  The Seminoles are 9-3-1 against the spread on the road this season, including 4-2-1 in road conference games.  Meanwhile, Duke once again has an over inflated line at home.  The Blue Devils have been very lucky to cover their last three games against the spread, as those games could have gone either way from a point spread perspective.  Florida State will not be affected by Duke’s home court, and this game will be much closer than expected.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 2

Baylor at Texas 9:00pm EST
Selection:  TEXAS -8 (W)
Profile:  This game will be senior night for Texas, as well as a chance to redeem themselves after a poor performance at Oklahoma State.  They have been a strong home team this season as well, so their fans will give them an added boost in this game.  In addition, Texas needs a win in order to stay in contention for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  The Longhorns have several reasons to come out and have a strong showing in this game.  Meanwhile, they get to face Baylor, a team that they outplayed on the road earlier this season.  In that game, Texas’ defense shut down the Bears offense and created 13 turnovers.  Look for that defense to cause Baylor a great deal of problems once again.  The Bears are 1-6 against the spread in road conference games this season, getting hammered in almost every game.  Look for a motivated Texas team to play one of their best games of the entire season.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Mar 1

Marquette at Louisville 12:00pm EST
Selection:  LOUISVILLE -8.5 (L)
Profile:  Marquette is coming off of a tough home loss to Connecticut, in a game where they lost their senior point guard Dominic James.  They were able to play the Huskies fairly close but that was mostly due in part to adrenaline and motivation.  However, the Golden Eagles are going to come out flat in this game.  This contest will be their first road test without James, which will be very tough considering Louisville’s tough defense and size.  Marquette has very limited depth and no size down low.  James absence will surely be felt in this game.  In addition, the Golden Eagles haven’t been a good road team for most of the season.  Meanwhile, Louisville is 14-2 straight up and 10-6 against the spread at home this season.  They will be able to contain what will be a sluggish Marquette offense.  Look for the Cardinals to get a blowout win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Missouri at Kansas 2:00pm EST
Selection:  KANSAS -4.5 (W)
Profile:  These two teams met just a few weeks ago, with Missouri making a huge come back win.  However, Kansas controlled almost that entire contest.  The Tigers had to make a furious rally in order to pull out the win.  In addition, the Jayhawks have the strongest home court advantage in the Big 12 Conference.  They are also the most improved team in the Big 12 over the past two months.  Their young starting line-up is vastly better since the start of conference play.  Kansas is 8-1-1 against the spread over the last month.  This game is a big let down spot for Missouri, especially since they already defeated Kansas this season.  The Jayhawks will be playing with revenge on their mind after losing in such a tough manner.  Look for Kansas to get the outright win and cover.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Tennessee at Florida 2:00pm EST
Selection:  FLORIDA -4.5 (L)
Profile:  Tennessee has been the worst point spread team in the SEC this season, and they have been horrible on the road.  The Volunteers have point spread losses in their last four road games.  Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi all beat them against the spread.  In fact, Mississippi and Kentucky blew them out rather easily.  In addition, this game is a huge revenge situation for Florida.  The Gators were blown out at Tennessee earlier this season on national television.  Tennessee jumped out to a huge lead in that game, but Florida actually outplayed them in the second half of that game.  The Gators also have a strong home court advantage with a 16-0 straight up record this season.  Florida would be tied for the SEC East lead as well with a win in this game.  Look for the Gators to get a blowout win over the Volunteers at home.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Michigan State at Illinois 4:00pm EST
Selection:  UNDER 123 POINTS (L)
Profile:  Both of these teams have been excellent under selections in Big 10 Conference play.  Illinois has played under the total in 16 of 23 lined games this season, including having 8 out of their last 10 games at home going under.  Their defense has really shut down opposing offenses on their home floor.  Meanwhile, Michigan State has allowed six out of their last10 opponents less than 54 points during that stretch.  This line has moved in the wrong direction, as it has already jumped up to 123 points.  The Spartans were held to just 54 points in their last two games as well.  Look for this game to played at a very slow pace, while being physical and low scoring.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Maryland at N.C. State 7:30pm EST
Selection:  N.C. STATE -4 (L)
Profile:  N.C. State has quietly become the most improved team in the ACC over the last few weeks.  They are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 games, including point spread covers against Wake Forest (twice) and North Carolina.  Meanwhile, Maryland is coming off of a tough home loss to Duke in a game that came down to the wire.  They have also really struggled on the road this season, getting completely blown out by several teams away from home.  Clemson, North Carolina, and Duke all destroyed them and easily covered large point spreads.  The Wolfpack have played better and better at home this season as well.  Their offensive production has improved dramatically, which has been the key to their turn around.  Look for a sluggish performance from Maryland coming off of a tough home loss to Duke.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Feb 28

Georgia Tech at North Carolina 12:00pm EST
Selection:  GEORGIA TECH +23.5 (L)
Profile:  This selection is purely based on value.  North Carolina has been over-rated by the oddsmakers in their conference home games.  The Tar Heels are 1-5 against the spread in their home ACC games this season, mainly because they are too high of favorites.  Meanwhile, Georgia Tech, despite being the worst team in the ACC, hasn’t come close to losing a game by over 23 points in conference play.  They have a good enough team to keep within this number if North Carolina puts in their back-ups late in the game as well.  Georgia Tech has covered the number at Virginia Tech, at Florida State, and at Maryland.  The Yellow Jackets will lose this game by double digits, but it won’t be anywhere close to this high of a spread.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Georgetown at Villanova 12:00pm EST
Selection:  VILLANOVA -6 (L)
Profile:  For whatever reason, Georgetown continues to be priced as a much better team than they really are.  The Hoyas have been one of the worst point spread teams in college basketball this season.  They are only 3-7-1 against the spread away from home and have really struggled in conference play.  Syracuse, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Duke all covered against the spread at home against the Hoyas.  Villanova has a fairly strong home court advantage, and their line-up is vastly better than Georgetown.  The Hoyas are coming off of two straight home losses as well, including a devastating blowout home loss to Louisville.  Villanova has been dominant from a point spread perspective at home, especially against better teams.  The Wildcats have point spread covers against Cincinnati, Marquette, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh.  Look for them to get an easy home win over a slumping Georgetown team.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Notre Dame at Connecticut 2:00pm EST
Selection:  NOTRE DAME +11.5 (W)
Profile:  Connecticut is coming off of a huge road win at Marquette to face a Notre Dame team that they already beat this season.  However, the Irish desperately need a win in this game in order to keep their tournament hopes alive.  Luckily, they will be facing an over confident UCONN team that will be playing another game without one of their top guards, Jerome Dyson.  He is a major blow to their team, especially when facing a good three point shooting group like Notre Dame.  The Huskies were 0-3 against the spread without Dyson before their win against a Marquette team which lost their starting point guard early in the game.  Look for Notre Dame to play much harder than Connecticut and take this game down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Duke at Virginia Tech 3:30pm EST
Selection:  VIRGINIA TECH +5.5 (L)
Profile:  Virginia Tech is able to step up in the biggest games, as they have outright wins against Clemson, Wake Forest, and Miami.  This Hokies team knows that they need one more big win in order to solidify a tournament spot, and this game is a huge revenge situation for them.  Duke completely hammered Tech at home almost two months ago, but the Blue Devils have regressed significantly since then.  In addition, the Blue Devils are in a tough spot here, as they have to travel again after playing a tough game at Maryland.  Virginia Tech has a strong home court advantage as well.  Duke, before their last win at Maryland, was 0-4 against the spread on the road.  Virginia Tech is poised to make a run for a NCAA tournament spot, and they will take this game down to the wire.
3 UNIT SELECTION

LSU at Kentucky 4:00pm EST
Selection:  LSU +4.5 (W)
Profile:  First and foremost, LSU is a better overall team than Kentucky, yet they are being priced as if they are about even with them.  The Wildcats have been one of the worst point spread teams in the SEC over the last month.  Meanwhile, the Tigers continue to be under-rated despite being the best team in the Southeastern Conference.  They are 12-1 in conference play, as well as 8-5 straight up on the road.  LSU has the size and guard play to shut down Kentucky’s two best players, Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson.  The Wildcats have no one who is able to step up when those two players are limited by opposing teams.  In addition, before their last home win against Tennessee, Kentucky had lost four games against the spread at home.  In addition, they lost outright at home to Mississippi State and South Carolina, and they should have lost outright to Florida.  Meanwhile, LSU has won outright on the road in four straight games, including impressive wins at Mississippi State and Tennessee.  Kentucky may bring some extra motivation to this game, but it won’t matter.  They brought everything they had in their home game against Florida, yet failed to cover the spread and should have lost outright.  LSU is the better team, and we are getting them as a decent underdog.  Look for the Tigers to win this game outright.
5 UNIT SELECTION

Alabama at Mississippi 4:00pm EST
Selection:  MISSISSIPPI -6 (L)
Profile:  Mississippi has done a remarkable job this season of playing well despite dealing with injuries all season.  They are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, as well as being 8-3 against the spread at home overall.  They have also won four straight games both outright and against the spread at home.  In addition, the Rebels are coming off of a poor road performance at Auburn, and this game is a revenge situation for them as well.  Alabama was able to squeak out a close home win against Ole Miss over a month ago, but the Rebels have improved significantly since that game.  Alabama is coming off of two straight home wins, so they will be over confident heading into this game.  Look for the Rebels to get a blowout home win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Texas at Oklahoma State 6:00pm EST
Selection:  OKLAHOMA STATE -2 (W)
Profile:  Oklahoma State is playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won four straight games both straight up and against the spread.  This game is also a big revenge situation for the Cowboys, as they want to avenge a blowout road loss to Texas a few weeks back.  Both teams have exhibited a strong home/road dichotomy as well.  The Longhorns are 0-3 against the spread in their last three road games, including outright losses at Nebraska and at Texas A&M.  This game is an absolute must win for the Cowboys as well if they want to secure a tournament bid.  A loss in this game would basically erase any chance of an at-large bid.  Oklahoma State has a very strong home court advantage, which will allow them to get a win and cover.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Nebraska at Kansas State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  KANSAS STATE -8 (L)
Profile:  Nebraska’s offense really has problems scoring away from home.  They are averaging just 57 points per game on the road, and they have averaged only 51 points per game in their last five games.  Consequently, Nebraska has really struggled on the road, getting blown out by Kansas and Missouri away from home.  Meanwhile, Kansas State is coming off of at Missouri.  However, they have been dominant at home this season, with blowout wins against Missouri, Texas Tech, and Iowa State.  Kansas State can light up the scoreboard at times, and their offensive production will simply be too much for Nebraska to contend with.  Look for the Wildcats to get a blowout home win. 
3 UNIT SELECTION

Feb 27

Siena at Niagara 7:00pm EST
Selection:  SIENA +2.5 (L)
Profile:  First and foremost, Siena is a significantly better team than Niagara.  The Saints beat the Purple Eagles by 17 points just a month ago.  They held Niagara to just 40% shooting with their stifling defense.  Meanwhile, Siena show 60% from the field, and they won by 17 points despite going 1-9 from the three point line.  They could have easily won that game by much more.  Siena’s entire line-up is full of seasoned veterans who are used to playing big games away from home.  In addition, they are used to playing against Niagara and won’t be fazed by the Purple Eagles home court.  Look for Siena to make a big statement in conference play and get the outright road win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Feb 26

West Virginia at Cincinnati 7:00pm EST
Selection:  CINCINNATI +5 (W)
Profile:  West Virginia has won three straight games in blowout fashion.  However, two of those contests were at home, and their only road game was at Rutgers.  Consequently, the Mountaineers are coming into this game over-valued and over-confident.  They will be traveling to face a very talented and motivated Cincinnati squad.  The Bearcats need marquees win in order to get into the tournament, and this game, being played on a national television, would be an excellent chance to get a win against a quality opponent.  Cincinnati has been a very strong home team, despite losing their last game against the spread and straight up to Louisville.  That game was close throughout though, as the final score is slightly misleading.  Meanwhile, West Virginia has struggled on the road this season, with road losses to Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Syracuse.  They have routinely had poor performances away from home, especially when coming into a game on a high note.  Cincinnati desperately needs a win in this game, so look for them to get an easy point spread cover.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Memphis at UAB 9:00pm EST
Selection:  UAB +4.5 (L)
Profile:  Memphis survived a scare at UTEP in their last game, and the Tigers are back out on the road to face a very tough UAB team.  The Blazers almost shocked them last season, but the Tigers were able to escape with a one point win.  UAB has a tremendously strong home court edge.  They are 12-0 straight up on their home floor, including several blowout wins.  This game will be the biggest of the season for the Blazers, especially since they want to avenge a 13 point loss at Memphis from just a few weeks ago.  UAB matches up fairly well against Memphis, and their home statistics are significantly better, especially on defense.  The Tigers will suffer from experienced guard play in this game, as the Blazers love to play pressure defense.  That defense will be even more suffocating because of the motivation that UAB will play with.  Look for the Blazers to win this game outright or take it down to the wire. 
2 UNIT SELECTION

Purdue at Michigan 9:00pm EST
Selection:  PURDUE -2.5 (L)
Profile:  Purdue went through a rough stretch of games when their best player, Kyle Hummel, was out or severely limited with a back injury.  However, he is back in the starting line-up, and the Boilermakers have looked like a different team when he’s on the floor.  They are coming off of two straight blowout wins, including an outstanding performance against Michigan State.  Purdue has been able to play well on the road this season against lesser opponents, with outright wins at Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.  They cannot afford to lose this game because of conference title aspirations.  In addition, Michigan struggles against teams that are able to shut down their perimeter shooters.  Purdue is the strongest defensive team in the Big 10 and will limit the Wolverine offense.  The Boilermakers will get the point spread cover on the road.
2 UNIT SELECTION

USC at California 10:30pm EST
Selection:  CALIFORNIA -4 (L)
Profile:  These two teams have exhibited a strong home/road dichotomy all season long.  Now they face off against each other, with the home team only being a small favorite.  USC has really struggled recently, losing four of their last five games.  They are also coming off of a disappointing home loss to Washington, in a game that they led late.  Meanwhile, this game is a revenge spot for California, as USC defeated them at home earlier this year.  The Golden Bears are also coming off of a disappointing road loss at Oregon State, so they will bring a maximum effort in this game.  Cal also has won their last three home games straight up and against the spread.  California will win this game comfortably.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Arizona State at Washington 11:00pm EST
Selection:  WASHINGTON -4 (L)
Profile:  Washington has a nice situational edge over Arizona State in this game.  The Sun Devils are going on the road after playing three straight games at home.  They also won all three of those contests against top conference teams, USC, UCLA, and Arizona.  However, they have to travel on the road to face a very tough Washington team.  The Huskies beat the Sun Devils outright earlier this season on the road, but yet they are still only a small favorite in this game.  Washington has played very well at home this season, with a 9-4 against the spread record, including a dominating outright win over UCLA.  The Huskies desperately want to win a conference title and would be in position to do so with a win here.  Look for Washington to control this game throughout over an over-confident Arizona State team. 
2 UNIT SELECTION

Feb 25

Northwestern at Indiana 6:30pm EST
Selection:  INDIANA +4 (L)
Profile:  Indiana is in a great position to get a win against an opponent that they can beat.  Northwestern has struggled on the road this season, mainly because their offense becomes anemic when they can’t make three pointers.  Northwestern only beat Indiana by 2 points earlier in the season, and now the Hoosiers get to face them at home in a revenge situation.  The Wildcats are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their last three road games.  Indiana has been able to play well and/or win outright at home against the weaker teams in conference.  The Hoosiers know that this game may be their last chance to get a home win, so look for them to bring their best effort.  Indiana will take this game down to the final shot or win outright.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Connecticut at Marquette 7:00pm EST
Selection:  MARQUETTE +1 (L)
Profile:  Connecticut is a much different team without guard Jerome Dyson.  That was evident in their home loss to Pittsburgh.  Marquette didn’t get much publicity entering this season, despite returning their best players from a season ago.  However, the Golden Eagles are 16-0 straight up at home this season and are near the top of the Big East standings.  A win in this game would put them in position to capture the conference regular season title.  Marquette presents a very difficult match-up challenge for Connecticut.  They are an excellent rebounding team, despite not having a dominant big man.  Therefore the Huskies won’t enjoy a large rebounding edge like in most games.  In addition, the Golden Eagles backcourt is a step above the Huskies guards, which is an advantage they can significantly exploit playing at home.  Connecticut struggled to score against Pittsburgh, as their guards could not get open shots and break their opponent down off of the dribble.  Look for that to be their main problem in this game, as the Marquette guards will be the difference in the game.
3 UNIT SELECTION

VCU at James Madison 7:00pm EST
Selection:  JAMES MADISON +2.5 (L)
Profile:  James Madison has been quietly playing their best basketball of the season.  They are 6-0 against the spread and 4-2 straight up in their last six games.  Their only straight up losses have come at VCU and at Hofstra, with both games going to overtime.  In the loss at VCU, James Madison actually outplayed the Rams before faltering late.  Meanwhile, Virginia Commonwealth has really struggled away from home against conference teams.  They have lost their last three conference road games against the spread, and they are just 1-3 straight up in their last four overall games away from home.  James Madison is in an excellent position to upset another conference opponent at home.  Look for them to win this game outright.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Kentucky at South Carolina 7:00pm EST
Selection:  SOUTH CAROLINA -1 (W)
Profile:  Kentucky continues to be one of the most over-rated teams in the SEC.  This game is a great position to fade them, as they are coming off of a blowout home win over Tennessee.  They now have to travel to face a South Carolina team that is very tough and has gone under the radar.  The Gamecocks actually defeated the Wildcats on the road earlier this season as well.  Kentucky has also not played well on the road this season against better opponents.  Meanwhile, South Carolina has a fairly strong home court edge and is 15-1 straight up there this season.  Look for the Wildcats to have a hang over from their big home win, and South Carolina will get the straight up and point spread cover.  It’s also worth noting that other sportsbooks have moved this line to -110, while the sharpest book continues to leave it at -1.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Wyoming at Colorado State 8:00pm EST
Selection:  COLORADO STATE -2.5 (L)
Profile:  Wyoming has one of the strongest home/road differences in all of college basketball.  They have defeated several quality opponents outright at home as significant underdogs.  However, the Cowboys have really struggled away from home this season, even against the weakest opponents in conference.  Colorado State meanwhile is not a good team, but they have been able to play well on their home floor.  They have straight up and against the spread wins against Air Force and TCU on their home floor, as well as an overtime loss to Utah.  Look for Colorado State to take advantage of their home floor and get the win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Duke at Maryland 9:00pm EST
Selection:  MARYLAND +6 (L)
Profile:  Duke is in a tough spot here from a situation stand point.  They played an emotional and hard fought game on Sunday night against Wake Forest.  The Blue Devils were able to hold on for a straight up and point spread win in that game, despite almost letting it slip away.  They put all of their focus and intensity into that win, but now they have to go on the road and play at Maryland.  To make things worse, the Terrapins have revenge on their mind, as Duke absolutely embarrassed them earlier in the season.  That loss was one of the worst in several years for the Terrapins, and they have not forgotten it.  Maryland is coming off of a comeback home win against UNC, but they don’t have to travel on the road for this game.  They should be very focused and play with a great deal of confidence from the North Carolina win.  In addition, Duke has been a horrible point spread team on the road this season.  Look for Maryland to take this game down to the wire and/or get the outright win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Mississippi State at Tennessee 9:00pm EST
Selection:  MISSISSIPPI STATE +9 (W)
Profile:  Tennessee continues to be one of the most over-rated teams in college basketball.  They have been extremely streak this season.  The Volunteers have beat up on weaker opponents this season but have struggled against the better teams in the SEC.  The main problem has been a lack of efficiency on offense.  Tennessee is able to blowout weaker teams when their three pointers are falling but really struggle to score any points against better defending teams.  In addition, they don’t have a very strong home court advantage this season.  LSU, Gonzaga, Memphis, and Kentucky have all been able to get relatively easy wins on the Volunteers home floor this year.  Mississippi State is arguably the better overall team in this game, yet they aren’t priced as such.  The Bulldogs have been outstanding since switching to a four guard set surrounded by their star big man, Jarvis Varnado.  Look for Mississippi State to keep this game very close with a good chance of pulling out the outright win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Oklahoma State at Colorado 10:30pm EST
Selection:  COLORADO +5.5 (L)
Profile:  Oklahoma State is one of the worst defending teams in the Big 12.  They are allowing teams to shoot on average close to 50% on the road.  In addition, their offense doesn’t flow anywhere near as well away from home.  Meanwhile, Colorado has been a quality team in Boulder.  They took Texas and Kansas State to overtime as significant underdogs.  In addition, they are also 4-1 against the spread to Big 12 opponents in their last five home games.  The Buffaloes are coming off of a home straight up and against the spread loss to Missouri, so they will be extra focused for this game.  Look for Colorado to exploit Oklahoma State’s porous defense and drop in offensive production and cover the spread.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Feb 24

Pittsburgh at Providence 7:00pm EST
Selection:  PITTSBURGH -8 (L)
Profile:  This game will be the first for the Panthers as the #1 team in the country.  They had a let down earlier in the season when they were ranked #1, so because of that poor performance I expect Pittsburgh to come out with an extra motivated performance.  Providence has really struggled against the best teams on their schedule.  They have blowout losses against UCONN, Louisville, West Virginia, and Marquette.  Pittsburgh has also been playing their best basketball over their last seven games, going 5-1 against the spread.  The Panthers have a tremendous advantage down low with DeJuan Blair as well.  Look for a motivated performance from Pittsburgh in order to avoid a let down as the #1 team in the country.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Penn State at Ohio State 7:00pm EST
Selection:  OHIO STATE -5.5 (W)
Profile:  There is good value in this game because of each team’s last performances.  Penn State is coming off of a five point win at Illinois, while Ohio State is coming off of a home loss to Illinois.  Most people would think that based on those games against a similar opponent, that the obvious choice is Penn State with the points.  However, Illinois was leading Penn State throughout before late rally by the Nittany Lions.  In addition, the Illini had an abnormally good shooting day on Sunday against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes absolutely need a win in order to keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive.  Penn State has struggled at times on the road, especially against a motivated opponent.  Look for Ohio State’s motivation and home court advantage to be the difference in this game, as they will get an easy double digit home win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Florida at LSU 9:00pm EST
Selection:  LSU -3.5 (W)
Profile:  Florida continues to be over-rated this season against better opponents.  The Gators are not as good as oddsmakers have given them credit for, and they have struggled on the road this season.  They have lost four out of their last five conference games away from home.  LSU matches up very well against Florida.  The Gators weakness is rebounding, so look for the Tigers to have a tremendous rebounding edge in this game.  Over each team’s last five games, Florida has been out rebounded by a 29-35 margin, while LSU has had a 39-32 rebounding edge.  In fact, the Tigers rebounding and inside play much more dominant at home.  This game is also a rare opportunity for LSU to be on national television and it is the first nationally televised weekday primetime game for them.  LSU will be very motivated for this game consequently.  In addition, the Tigers are the better team in this match-up, yet they are still being undervalued.  Look for LSU to come out with a strong home win.
3 UNIT SELECTION

Feb 23

Louisville at Georgetown 7:00pm EST
Selection:  LOUISVILLE -1 (W)
Profile:  Let’s look at the situation of both teams heading into this game.  Louisville is coming off of a road win and cover at Cincinnati, and they have also won straight up and against the spread in their last three games.  Meanwhile, Georgetown lost another conference game on Saturday against Marquette.  The Hoyas continue to be over-rated by the oddsmakers and betting public.  They simply are nowhere near the same team as in previous seasons.  Georgetown has struggled on offense, and they don’t have a dominant big man to go to.  They are 4-10 straight up in their last 14 games.  The Hoyas only wins in over a month have been against South Florida and Rutgers as well.  They simply haven’t been able to step against better competition, even when playing with motivation at home.  Louisville has played well on the road, and their defense will shut down Georgetown’s offense.  Look for the Cardinals to get the road win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Kansas at Oklahoma 9:00pm EST
Selection:  KANSAS +4 (W)
Profile:  Oklahoma has two significant things going against them heading into this game.  First, they may be without the services of the best player in the country, Blake Griffin due to a concussion injury.  Even if he does play, he won’t be anywhere near 100%.  In addition, the Sooners are coming off of a tough loss at Texas, in a game that they gave away the lead late.  Now they have to come back just two days later with their best player injured and play a surging Jayhawks team.  The winner of this game will likely be the front runner for the Big 12 regular season championship, so Kansas will come out strong.  The Jayhawks have already shown the ability to play on the road, with a very close loss at Missouri.  Look for the Jayhawks experienced play at point guard to be the difference in this game.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Feb 22

Illinois at Ohio State 1:00pm EST
Selection:  OHIO STATE -2.5 (L)
Profile:  Illinois has struggled on the road all season, and they have to travel to play a motivated Ohio State team.  The Illini have lost against the spread at Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.  Some of those losses were in blowout fashion as well.  Meanwhile, Ohio State is coming off of two straight road losses, and they also got blown out at Illinois earlier in the season.  Consequently, this game is a revenge situation for the Buckeyes.  Look for Ohio State to get the home win and cover.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Villanova at Syracuse 1:00pm EST
Selection:  VILLANOVA +2.5 (W)
Profile:  Villanova defeated Syracuse rather easily back on February 7th.  The Wildcats showed their match-up advantages against the Orangemen in that game, as their guard dominated line-up lit up the scoreboard.  Villanova has been a decent road team as well this season.  Meanwhile, Syracuse has underperformed all year.  This game will be one of the toughest home match-ups this season for the Orangemen as well.  They needed overtime to defeat a weakened Georgetown team at home also.  Look for Villanova’s guards to take over this game and the outright win.
2 UNIT SELECTION

St. Bonaventure at Temple 2:00pm EST
Selection:  ST. BONAVENTURE +17 (W)
Profile:  St. Bonaventure continues to be an excellent point spread team on the road, as they have been able to keep every game close as the visitor.  They also have some quality outright wins away from home as well.  They are coming off of a blowout loss at George Washington though.  However, the Colonials shot 83% from the three point line and 57% from the field.  It is unlikely that Temple has a similar shooting performance today, and the Bonnies will really focus on defense to make up for that blowout loss.  St. Bonaventure has covered against the spread at Dayton, Richmond, Rhode Island, and Duquesne, so they have shown the ability to stay with the best teams in the A-10.  Look for the Owls to win only by single digits.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Wisconsin at Michigan State 3:00pm EST
Selection:  WISCONSIN +8.5 (L)
Profile:  The Badgers have rebounded from a rough stretch of games to win five straight games.  They are in desperation mode in order to make a late push for an NCAA tournament bid.  Meanwhile, Michigan State has not played well against conference competition at home this season.  They have lost against the spread to Illinois, Penn State, Ohio State, and Northwestern at home this season.  The Badgers play tough defense and are able to keep games close, especially when motivated.  Look for Wisconsin to continue their hot streak into this game and take it down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION

Arizona at Arizona State 10:00pm EST
Selection:  ARIZONA +7.5 (W)
Profile:  Arizona has dramatically turned their season around, winning seven straight games.  They have impressive wins over UCLA, USC, and Washington in that stretch.  Now they travel to play their in-state rival in a revenge situation.  The Wildcats suffered a tough late game meltdown to Arizona State just a few weeks ago before their hot streak.  Arizona State is not an explosive team either, making it much more difficult to cover this high of a spread.  Look for this game to be tightly contested and come down to the wire.
2 UNIT SELECTION